LAKELAND, Fla. (AP) – An anticipated small crop of Florida oranges could squeeze the world’s juice supply by 7 percent this year, pushing U.S. retail prices up by as much as 50 cents a gallon.

A state economist told the Florida Citrus Commission on Wednesday that U.S. orange juice companies may need to import 21 percent more juice to compensate for the state’s hurricane-induced shortage.

The anticipated shortfall and low production during the two previous seasons – also because of hurricanes – have already prompted juice suppliers such as PepsiCo Inc.’s Tropicana Products and The Coca-Cola Co.’s Minute Maid to boost prices.

“We’ve had some major changes in these last three years,” said Mark G. Brown of the Florida Economic and Market Research Department.

While the weak crop of oranges may strain consumers, growers are expected to benefit.

Despite higher processing costs, returns could be the best ever without adjusting for inflation, Brown said. Preliminary numbers put revenue at more than $1 billion for processed oranges, bettering last year’s estimate of $765 million.

The Sunshine State, which typically produces more than 90 percent of all juice consumed in America, is expected to produce its smallest crop in more than a decade, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Florida’s woes will be partially offset by a better crop than last year in Brazil, the world’s top producer of orange juice. However, Florida and Brazilian juice production combined is still down 20 percent from 2003-2004 levels, when Florida produced a healthy crop unscathed by storms.

In the U.S., retail orange juice prices could climb as high as $4.10 a gallon this year for frozen concentrate (up from $3.46 last year), and as high as $6.05 a gallon for not-from-concentrate (up from $5.44 last year), Brown said.

Because of the higher prices, Brown said said per-capita domestic juice consumption was likely to fall to its lowest level since 2001, to 4.1 gallons, down from 5.2 gallons in 2001.

Florida’s poor expected crop, which won’t be fully harvested until June or July, is also leaving the state Citrus Department with less money to push the health and wellness benefits of juice. The Citrus Commission had to slash funding for generic orange juice television ads by nearly $4 million to about $13 million.

AP-ES-10-25-06 1428EDT