LEWISTON – A new poll released Thursday shows Gov. John Baldacci with a big lead over his challengers and an electorate that may have soured on the idea of the Taxpayer Bill of Rights.

According to Critical Insights’ Fall 2006 tracking poll, Baldacci has the support of 42 percent of likely voters. Republican Chandler Woodcock is second with 25 percent and independent Barbara Merrill has 11 percent. Green Independent Pat LaMarche has 7 percent. Eleven percent of respondents said they were undecided.

On TABOR, 48 percent of likely voters said they planned to vote against the initiative, which will be Question 1 on November’s ballot. Forty percent said they would vote for TABOR, while 10 percent were undecided and 2 percent said they didn’t know.

In addition to likely voters, the poll also measured the support for TABOR among Maine business decision makers. Among those, 63 percent said they support TABOR while 31 percent said they were opposed to it. Six percent said they didn’t know.

The poll was conducted Oct. 16-23 and included 600 telephone interviews. The margin of error is 4 percent. On average, the surveys lasted 19 minutes. The results also refer to findings from Critical Insights’ Minding Maine’s Business survey of business leaders, which was conducted in August and September.

Critical Insights also asked respondents about other political races and general political attitudes.

Forty-nine percent of respondents said they approve of the way Baldacci is doing his job, and that number is consistent in both of Maine’s congressional districts.

In the race for the U.S. Senate, Republican incumbent Olympia Snowe has a commanding lead. Among likely voters, 74 percent said they will vote for Snowe. Democrat Jean Hay Bright received 14 percent, independent Bill Slavick received 6 percent and 6 percent remain undecided.

In the 1st Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Tom Allen, a Democrat, has 62 percent. Republican state Rep. Darlene Curley has 18 percent and independent Dexter Kamilewicz has 6 percent among likely voters. Eight percent said they were undecided, and 6 percent said they don’t know.

In the 2nd Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Michael Michaud, a Democrat, has 62 percent of likely voters. Republican challenger Scott D’Amboise has 25 percent, with 8 percent undecided and 5 percent not knowing.

Only 24 percent of Mainers expressed a favorable opinion of President George W. Bush, while 59 percent said they had an unfavorable opinion of him.

On issues, the poll found that 34 percent of respondents said that taxes are the biggest issue facing the state. Sixteen percent identified the economy, 14 percent said unemployment and 12 percent said health care.

When asked about the state’s economy, 44 percent said that Maine’s economy will stay about the same over the next 12 months; 31 percent said it would get worse and 18 percent said it would get better.

Critical Insights is based in Portland.