The dirty secret is finally out. Even America’s military commanders and Capitol Hill Republicans have begun to acknowledge Iraq’s political and military chaos is beyond “sectarian violence” and degenerated into civil war. President Bush, of course, is not about to join this growing chorus. Never one to admit mistakes, Bush continues to pretend we will stay in Iraq until the country’s security forces are prepared to assume full responsibility.

It’s time for a reality check. Unless there is a reasonable prospect of stabilizing Iraq and preserving some modicum of peace and unity there, it will be futile for the U.S. to continue sacrificing soldiers’ lives and financial resources in a quixotic effort to reach an unreachable goal.

The best guide for the future, I believe, lies in the past, since historic patterns tend to repeat themselves. While the future can never be foretold with crystal-ball clarity, a careful analysis of history can help parse the probabilities. It’s a lot safer to drive when you keep at least one eye on the rearview mirror.

In the post-World War II period, India (including Pakistan), Northern Ireland and the former Yugoslavia have been torn apart by ethnic and religious conflict. Iraq is far more likely to conform to their experience than to become a pluralistic democracy. It is worth looking at the three alternative patterns which emerge from these historical examples: partition, exhaustion or ethnic cleansing.

Partition

India was granted independence from Great Britain on August 15, 1947. With the agreement of the indigenous factions of the region, Britain partitioned the subcontinent into two independent states — India, consisting of predominantly Hindu areas, and Pakistan, of predominantly Muslim ones.

The division of this huge geographic patchwork quilt caused mass population migrations, totaling almost 15 million people, with each group trying to cross to the relative safety of areas under the control of its majority. In the process, widespread violence against stranded minorities led to as many as one million deaths. Relations between the two nations have remained tense since partition, but massive, ongoing bloodshed has been avoided.

Exhaustion

In the late 1960s, Northern Ireland, Britain’s last toehold on the Emerald Isle, fell victim to endemic sectarian violence (its inhabitants called it “the troubles”). Paramilitary units of the contending Unionists (who claimed to represent the majority Protestant population and advocated continued association with Britain) and Nationalists (who claimed to represent the Catholic minority and advocated union with the Republic of Ireland) committed numerous atrocities in hostilities that lasted over 30 years, and claimed more than 3,000 lives.

British troops dispatched there in 1969 vainly attempted to keep the peace. It was not until 1998, however, when the competing factions, weary of the ceaseless struggle, entered into the Belfast Agreement, ending the violence.

Ethnic cleansing

Between 1991 and 1999, Slobodan Milosevic, an ex-Communist who became leader of Yugoslavia after the fall of the Soviet Union, conducted a policy of genocide – euphemistically called “ethnic cleansing” – to rid his multi-ethnic country of its populations of largely Muslim Bosnians and Albanians. This policy intended to avert potential bids for independence by these groups, and give a monopoly of power to Milosevic’s political base of Christian Serbs.

It was carried out through forced population displacement, mass murder and rape. The worst examples occurred in the provinces of Bosnia (1992-1995) and Kosovo (1998-1999). Milosevic might have succeeded had NATO not intervened in 1999 with a bombing campaign that ended ethnic cleansing and ultimately his regime.

Similarities

Iraq shares a variety of characteristics with India, Northern Ireland and Yugoslavia. Created with arbitrary boundaries during the British colonial period, it is ethnically and religiously diverse. A nation of almost 30 million, it has three major ethnic groups – Shiites (representing about 60 percent, mainly occupying the south), Sunnis (about 20 percent, primarily in the center), and Kurds (about 17 percent, mostly in the north).

Its factions are implacably hostile to one another, and there are factional splits within them. Mutual enmities go back centuries, exacerbated by the brutality of Saddam Hussein and his Sunni followers against Shiites and Kurds. Each is well organized, and well armed.

Given the past three years’ experience and the traditions of factionalism, violence and vendetta that characterize Middle Eastern politics, it seems unlikely war-weariness will lead to a stable, multi-ethnic state in the foreseeable future, let alone in the year or two that constitute America’s likely window of staying power in Iraq.

The dark prospect of ethnic cleansing is a more probable scenario, particularly if the numerically superior Shiites decide to pay back the Sunnis in kind for their spree of murder and mayhem. The recent growth of Shiite death squads may foreshadow such a development.

The most likely scenario is that Iraq will simply splinter into three parts. This partition come from an agreement between the factions, a resolution brokered by the international community, or secession. Kurds, who sit astride the country’s petroleum resources and already act semi-autonomously, might secede from Iraq and offer a strategic partnership to a world power, say China, in return for oil.

Shiites, with Iran’s help, could also secede and force the U.S. out of the war by attacking its overland supply lines, which run from the Persian Gulf through Kuwait and southern Iraq. Neither the U.S. and Great Britain, who forces cannot even pacify Baghdad, nor inadequate Iraqi security forces could forestall such moves.

Such a development would be a nightmare for U.S. foreign diplomacy. It would represent a clear failure of our foreign policy, strengthen Iran’s hand in the Middle East, and lead to the creation of an independent Kurdish state, which neighboring Turkey, our NATO ally, strongly opposes.

However, it may sadly prove to be the best of many bad alternatives.