New YORK (AP) – Wal-Mart’s holiday sales used to be the retail industry’s standard.
Through a mixture of bad judgment and economic woes like a crumbling housing market and higher gas prices, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. tripped this year. And its fall is sending shock waves throughout the industry as it heads into the last few weeks of holiday shopping.
Wal-Mart on Thursday reported a sales decline for the first time in 10 years and warned that its holiday sales would be disappointing. At the same time, the government had worrisome news on jobs, saying unemployment benefit gains jumped to the highest level since October 2005.
Many retailers probably didn’t want to hear the messages from Wal-Mart and the Labor Department because they may spell trouble for them, too.
Industry analysts generally believed the world’s largest retailer is struggling with its own internal problems, not an industry-wide malaise. But bad news for Wal-Mart, which promised more aggressive discounting. This means intensified price wars, and lower profit margins, as other merchants slash their prices to compete.
“This is pretty discouraging,” said Ken Perkins, president of RetailMetrics LLC, a research company in Swampscott, Mass.
Wal-Mart’s confirmation of weak November sales and its announcement that its December same-store sales gain would be no better than 1 percent came as the nation’s retailers reported an overall mixed performance for the month. Same-store sales reflect business at stores open at least a year and are a widely followed meaure of a company’s strength.
Wal-Mart’s disappointment was a sharp contrast with results from discount rival Target Corp. and Federated Department Stores Inc., which exceeded expectations. Other retailers had mixed sales; J.C. Penney Co. and Costco Wholesale Corp. both fell short of Wall Street projections.
The timing of Wal-Mart’s news couldn’t have been worse, coming just after the start of holiday shopping. While many retailers had a strong Thanksgiving weekend, Wal-Mart said Saturday its November sales would be weaker than expected.
Wal-Mart’s 0.1 percent dip in same-store sales for the month is in line with the reduced forecast from analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. Including a drop in gasoline revenues from its Sam’s Club division, which Wal-Mart did not include in its calculation, same store-sales fell 0.3 percent.
Wal-Mart has struggled in recent months with a mix of problems, including the fact that its lower-income customers were hurt by soaring gas prices. But the company’s lackluster sales have persisted – partly because its attempt to broaden its appeal to higher-income shoppers was poorly executed. It filled its fall clothing racks with too many trendy items like skinny jeans that shoppers didn’t want. Wal-Mart’s weakness dragged down the International Council of Shopping Centers-UBS same-store sales tally for November to 2.1 percent, below the original 3 percent growth forecast. Excluding Wal-Mart, the tally rose 4.0 percent.
While retailers have hopes for a decent season, there are concerns about how confident consumers are. The latest measure of confidence by the Conference Board fell in November, and reports of job cuts and buyouts could make consumers even more uneasy.
Thursday’s Labor Department report also raised questions about their comfort level.The department said 357,000 claims were filed last week, up 34,000 from the previous week. Economists said it was too soon to tell whether the unexpected increase indicated a weakening in the job market.
October figures on consumer income and spending issued Thursday showed consumers had reason to be upbeat, at least during that month. The Commerce Department said incomes rose a healthy 0.4 percent, while spending rose 0.2 percent after a decline in September. The data was encouraging but does not guarantee that consumers shopping for the holidays will feel like spending freely – something that was clear the day after Thanksgiving, when shoppers focused on getting the best bargain.
Shoppers gravitated toward early bird specials and then leaving stores when the deals disappeared.
“This tells me that the customers is ever savvy about shopping for markdowns,” said John Morris, a managing director at Wachovia Securities “The next couple of weeks will be really telling.”
Target’s 5.9 percent same-store sales increase topped forecasts of a 5.7 percent gain. But Costco reported a 5 percent gain in same-store sales, below the 5.7 percent estimate.
Among department stores, Federated, which acquired May Department Stores Co. last year, reported a robust 8.5 percent same-store sales gain, beating the 4.8 percent estimate. Same-store sales include only Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s stores that existed before the deal closed. Federated also raised its December forecast.
Results from Kohl’s Corp. and Penney were disappointing. Penney said same-store sales at its department stores rose 1.4 percent, falling short of the 3.7 percent forecast from Wall Street. Kohl’s had a 3.7 percent gain in same-store sales, below the 4.8 percent prediction.
Gap Inc., which is still struggling to find the right fashion formula, suffered an 8 percent drop in same-store sales, worse than the 5.4 percent forecast.
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