Months before anyone outside its studio family had seen Bill Condon’s adaptation of the Broadway hit “Dreamgirls,” industry buzz had the film leading all contenders for this year’s Academy Award for best picture and two cast members (Eddie Murphy and Jennifer Hudson) winning supporting acting Oscars.

Since its first outside screening last week, the buzz has turned into word of mouth, and the musical is, in fact, beginning to look like the one to beat.

“Dreamgirls,” about the rise of and turmoil within a Motown trio modeled on the Supremes, opens in New York on Dec. 15. Mel Gibson’s “Apocalypto” and Robert De Niro’s “The Good Shepherd” haven’t been screened yet, and the word from early showings of Steven Soderbergh’s coming “The Good German” rate it a long shot.

Otherwise, the Oscar race is coming into focus.

Among the movies already released, Stephen Frears’ “The Queen,” Martin Scorsese’s “The Departed” and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s “Babel” are all considered strong contenders.

Clint Eastwood’s war drama “Flags of Our Fathers,” which was well-reviewed but has done poorly at the box office, could get a boost from the Dec. 20 release of “Letters From Iwo Jima,” his companion piece showing the same battle from the Japanese side.

Oliver Stone’s “World Trade Center” will get a big year-end push from Paramount, and critic fans of “Little Miss Sunshine” are determined to turn the slight road comedy into the Little Engine That Could.

Actors almost conceded nominations include Forest Whitaker (“Last King of Scotland”), Peter O’Toole (“Venus”), Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Departed”) and Will Smith (“Pursuit of Happyness”) among male leads, and Helen Mirren (“The Queen”), Meryl Streep (“The Devil Wears Prada”), Kate Winslet (“Little Children”) and Judi Dench (“Notes on a Scandal”) for lead actress.

Stay tuned: The horses are entering the paddock.