LEWISTON – Keep your boots and long johns handy this winter if you’re living in the eastern half of the U.S., the Farmers’ Almanac’s forecast suggests. But people in the West can look forward to a milder winter than the last one.
“Mother Nature is going to be sort of two-faced,” almanac Editor Peter Geiger said.
“She’s showing off her split personality,” added Sandi Duncan, the managing editor.
The almanac’s 2008 edition, which goes on sale Tuesday, predicts colder-than-normal temperatures and above-average precipitation east of the Mississippi, with milder temperatures and near- or below-normal precipitation in the western half of the country.
Caught in-between, areas just west of the Mississippi will see-saw from wintry to springlike conditions and back again.
The almanac foresees plenty of snow across eastern New York and New England and temperatures averaging up to three degrees below normal along most of the Atlantic Coast. The Great Lakes region will also take a pounding and four major frosts will extend as far south as Florida.
The outlook is tamer for the Great Plains, the Rocky Mountains, the Southwest desert and the Pacific Coast. But Geiger said snow in Colorado will be more than adequate for skiing.
Other predictions include a cool, wet spring in many places, active tornado and hurricane seasons and a warmer-than-normal summer in much of the country.
The almanac’s general outlook sets the stage for more detailed month-by-month forecasts that provide weather highlights grouped by region over three- and four-day periods.
The forecasts are prepared two years in advance by the almanac’s reclusive prognosticator, Caleb Weatherbee, who uses a secret formula based on sunspots, the position of the planets and the tidal action of the moon. Weatherbee has already completed his 2009 forecast and is taking a break before starting on 2010, Geiger said.
The almanac’s winter forecast is at odds with the federal government’s seasonal outlook, which is based largely on statistical trends. For the coming winter, those trends point to above normal temperatures in the eastern half of the U.S. and the Southwest, with drier than average conditions along the nation’s southern tier and up the East Coast into Virginia.
“Our forecasts are rather general – they’re probabilities,” said Michael Halpert, head of forecast operations at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center. He said the outlooks are of little use to individuals but can be of value to power companies, agricultural interests and construction companies.
Last year’s almanac forecast of a much colder than normal winter was off the mark in the early going, thanks to what Geiger said was an unforeseen El Nino that made for quiet conditions in the East before a series of heavy snowstorms struck with a vengeance in February and March.
Even so, the 191-year-old almanac claims an overall 80 to 85 percent accuracy rate, noting that readers planning family reunions, company picnics and, of course, weddings have long relied on its forecasts for guidance in setting the date for their big event. “We’ve been called a bride’s best friend,” Geiger said.
Acknowledging, however, that the predictions aren’t perfect, the almanac is inviting couples who endured torrential rain, hail, snow or even a tornado or hurricane to share their story in hopes of winning a second honeymoon – a seven-day tropical cruise.
The top 10 entries in the Worst Wedding Weather contest will be posted early next year on the almanac’s Web site and a vote by readers will select the grand prize winner.
The almanac, not to be confused with the New Hampshire-based Old Farmer’s Almanac founded 26 years earlier, claims a circulation of about 5 million. Most are sold to banks, insurance companies and other businesses that give them away as a goodwill promotion. Other versions are sold by retailers in the United States and Canada.
This year’s 208-page retail edition contains the usual mix of recipes, riddles, anecdotes, corny jokes and inspirational messages.
The latest collection of helpful hints includes applying a mixture of tomato juice and buttermilk to relieve sunburn, focusing a hair dryer on walls to remove crayon marks and heating 2 teaspoons of vanilla extract in a bowl for 30 seconds to rid a microwave of the smell of burnt popcorn.
A feature on global warming that includes simple, money-saving suggestions that readers can follow to reduce greenhouse gas emissions reflects what the editors say is the almanac’s longstanding concern for the environment, its waste-not, want-not belief in recycling, and its philosophy of living in harmony with the planet.
“We’ve been green even before the word green became part of the popular culture,” Duncan said.
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On the Net: http://farmersalmanac.com
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