DES MOINES, Iowa – Conventional wisdom says celebrity endorsements don’t matter. But Dr. Phil and Rachael Ray might disagree.

Oprah Winfrey, who has helped launch national careers and best-selling novels, begins the first of five campaign rallies for Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama today. Hundreds of media outlets are onboard and the thousands of tickets have been snapped up quicker than you can say Hannah Montana. It could persuade voters to take a second look and give the Obama campaign a welcome boost.

Or, conventionally speaking, not.

With less than a month before caucuses meet and votes are cast, Obama and Sen. Hillary Rodham are in a dead heat in Iowa, and Clinton is about 10 points ahead in New Hampshire polls.

Many believe that if Clinton wins Iowa and New Hampshire, then momentum feeds the mantra of inevitability and she will become the nominee.

“If she loses in Iowa, she’s got real trouble. If Obama loses in Iowa, it’s over, it’s done,” said political science professor Andrew E. Smith who specializes in public opinion at the University of New Hampshire.

And so can the queen of TV help crown a king?

“If you are going to have your brand – or your political campaign – paired with any celebrity, Oprah is the one celebrity you want to be paired with,” said Matt Fleming, Dallas-based client manager for Davie-Brown Entertainment.

Fleming’s company maintains a database designed to measure the popularity of more than 1,500 celebrities, which helps clients choose spokespeople. Oprah is at the top of the list, as she is on several such surveys.

She is at the top because she is known by 98 percent of people surveyed by Davie Brown – and by 100 percent of the women. When people are asked whether they believe she is an “influence in today’s world,” she beats everyone else on the list.

“She is perfectly positioned to influence the two groups that will decide the Democratic winner – women and African-Americans,” said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

So far, Clinton has done well with both groups. “But if Obama is able to split women and win African-Americans, he’s the nominee,” Sabato said.

Still, few involved with politics believe that any celebrity, no matter how revered, can actually deliver votes. But Winfrey carries a spotlight on her face and a magnet in her pocket.

About 13,000 tickets to Sunday’s “Oprabama” event went in a matter of days at the Verizon Wireless Arena in Manchester, N.H. – that’s about as well as Justin Timberlake, Aerosmith and Neil Diamond have done at the venue. And in Columbia, the rally Sunday has been moved to the University of South Carolina’s 80,250-seat stadium – not that the campaign says it will need every seat, but demand has been high.

In Iowa, tickets are being leveraged for campaign volunteering. More than 120 people showed up for caucus training to snare better seats. And a steady stream of people have made their way into the small downtown Des Moines campaign headquarters to secure tickets. The front desk is surrounded by a half-dozen boxes stuffed with ticket envelopes, bearing names like, “Thai Lawyers for Obama.”

“She does what a good TV program does for advertisers: delivers an audience. But he’s got to make the pitch,” said Dennis Goldford, political science professor at Drake University.

Goldford is an expert on the Iowa caucus system, and he recognizes that Winfrey is an “awesome, queenly figure in popular American culture,” but in Iowa, the most she does for Obama, “is get someone to take a second look.”

The novelty of seeing Winfrey is huge, but on the scale of a voter’s decision-making, “she’s a feather,” he said.

Former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, an Obama supporter, said he would not underestimate the power of Winfrey.

“Oprah has broken every stereotype and transcends every traditional, historical barrier you can think of in American business, politics, life as it relates to race, sex, image – she has shattered all of those,” he said.


He also said she brings attention to the Obama campaign when he needs it the most.

“She could have a profound effect on his campaign because when people have taken the time to look at Obama, they have liked what they’ve seen,” Kirk said.

It’s very well true that years from now, politicians will refer to the phenomenon known as the “Oprah bounce,” University of Virginia professor Sabato said.

“And if Obama doesn’t do well,” he said, “Well, I don’t think Oprah will be quite as sought after.”