DEARBORN, Mich. (AP) – Ford Motor Co.’s overseas sales are booming and a new round of U.S. buyouts will bring much-needed cost cuts at home, but industry watchers say the company still has so many problems in North America it will be tough for it to achieve its goal of profitability by 2009.

Even if Ford does everything right, there are always factors chipping away at its margins, from fierce competition, high gas prices and the weak dollar to sinking U.S. demand, new government regulations and rising prices for raw materials, said Kevin Tynan, an auto analyst with New York-based Argus Research.

The cuts came as Ford said it narrowed its losses in 2007 but warned that the outlook for U.S. sales in 2008 remains grim.

“While I think the plan is on target and is the right plan, there’s a lot of things that happen between now and profitability in 2009 that can short-circuit it,” Tynan said. “With a declining U.S. market and declining share, I wonder if they can ever get lean enough in North America to be consistently profitable.”

Ford took one step Thursday, unveiling buyout and early retirement packages for 54,000 U.S. hourly workers, or 93 percent of its hourly work force, and an unspecified number of cuts to its salaried ranks. The cuts came as Ford said it narrowed its losses in 2007 but warned that the outlook for U.S. sales in 2008 remains grim. And Ford expects to post another loss in 2008, President and Chief Executive Alan Mulally said.

He said Ford needs the buyouts as it cuts production to meet falling U.S. demand. Mulally predicted Ford’s U.S. market share will be at the low end of a 14 percent to 15 percent range in 2008, down from 14.8 percent in 2007 and 26 percent a decade ago. Ford fell behind Toyota Motor Corp. in U.S. sales last year, ceding its 75-year position as the nation’s No. 2 auto seller behind General Motors Corp.

Mulally said the United Auto Workers agreed to two rounds of buyouts for hourly workers. The first will be offered immediately to fewer than 1,000 remaining workers who had been employed at already closed plants in Atlanta, St. Louis, Edison, N.J., and Norfolk, Va. Those offers close the week of Feb. 28 and employees would leave the company by March 1.

The second round of buyouts would go to workers at all other U.S. Ford locations, opening Feb. 18 and closing the week of March 17. Mulally said those workers would likely leave the company starting April 1, with all of them gone by year’s end.

The buyouts come in addition to a 2006 round of buyouts in which 33,600 U.S. hourly workers left the company. This time around, they could be replaced with lower-wage workers. Under Ford’s new contract with the UAW, which was signed in November, Ford can pay new workers $14.20 per hour, or about half the wages of a current worker. Under the contract, up to 20 percent of Ford’s U.S. hourly work force may be paid at the lower wages.

UAW President Ron Gettelfinger told reporters at an event Thursday in Detroit that the union agreed to the packages and knows that Ford wants to bring in more lower-paid workers.

“We knew what we were doing when we went into it, but we also recognized that the companies did need help,” he said.

Ford wouldn’t say how many people it hopes will take the offer, but Chief Financial Officer Don Leclair said Ford has about 12,000 U.S. workers eligible for retirement, or about 22 percent of its hourly work force. Ford is offering eight different packages for employees, including a $50,000 lump-sum payment for non-skilled workers near retirement and a $70,000 lump-sum payment for skilled workers. That’s a sweeter deal than 2006, when non-skilled workers were offered a $35,000 lump sum.

Chuck Moore, a director at the Detroit restructuring firm Conway, MacKenzie and Dunleavy, said Ford probably won’t see tens of thousands of workers leaving as it did during the last round of buyouts.

“The reality is that those that were concerned before left, and now you’re left with people who were not concerned about their jobs,” he said. “But this is a free throw. Whatever they can get is going to be of benefit.”

Chris Kimmons, president of UAW Local 919 in Norfolk, said there are only 36 workers left from his plant who are considering the offers. Most of those workers were hoping to transfer to another Ford plant, he said, so he’s not sure if anyone will take it.

“With the incentives up, for the ones that could retire, there might be a little bit more in it,” he said.

Tynan, of Argus Research, said the company may regret it if too many people leave and are replaced with lower-paid, less-experienced workers.

“There’s a fine line between reducing costs and trying to get lean and ultimately doing more harm than good to your production chain,” he said.

Ford shares fell 4 cents to $6.26 in Thursday trade.

Dearborn-based Ford lost $2.8 billion, or $1.30 per share, in the fourth quarter, narrower than a loss of $5.6 billion, or $2.98, in 2006. The full-year loss of $2.7 billion, or $1.35 per share, was significantly better than 2006, when Ford lost $12.6 billion, or $6.72.

Ford revenue rose to $44.1 billion for the fourth quarter, from $40.3 billion a year earlier. The company’s full-year revenue climbed nearly 8 percent to $172.5 billion.

In its North American automotive operations, the company lost $3.5 billion for the year, narrower than a loss of $6.0 billion in 2006. Ford said higher net pricing and lower costs helped offset losses from lower sales and unfavorable exchange rates. Full-year revenue for the region increased 2 percent to $70.5 billion.

In the fourth quarter, Ford lost $1.6 billion in North America, compared with a loss of $2.7 billion in the year-ago quarter. Fourth-quarter revenue grew 13 percent to $17 billion.

Ford’s U.S. sales took a hit in 2007 when it reduced low-profit sales to rental-car fleets by a third.

CFO Leclair said Ford will continue to cut fleet sales in 2008, but by a lower volume. Excluding fleet sales, Ford’s U.S. market share in 2007 totaled 12.8 percent.

One bright spot was South America, where 2007 earnings more than doubled to $1.2 billion. But Leclair said Ford had trouble meeting demand in the region and the record profits were unsustainable.

Moore, of the firm Conway, MacKenzie and Dunleavy, said Ford has clearly made progress, but its ultimate success will come down to new products. The new Ford F-150 pickup, due out this fall, could be a hit, he said, but Ford needs more.

“Ford has undertaken the right steps on the cost side, but the real key is going to be improvements in the product portfolio,” he said.

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Auto Writer Tom Krisher reported from Detroit. Business Writer Jeff Karoub contributed to this report from Detroit.

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On the Net:

Ford Motor Co., http://www.ford.com

AP-ES-01-24-08 1707EST