Finding a resolution to the state budget woes is about as easy as predicting a presidential caucus.

Here’s how we think a budget caucus would go:

“Who supports raising taxes to cover the $95 million shortfall, say by adding one penny to Maine’s sales tax? OK, all tax-and-spend liberals, stand in that corner.

Who supports cutting state spending, such as social services, salaries and administrators? OK, all slashing conservatives, occupy the opposite corner.

Who is uncommitted? OK, everybody else – boy, there seems to be a lot of you – move into another corner. Well, OK, take both corners. Aww heck, just take the rest of the room. Now close the doors.

Any more people in here and we’ll never get started.”

From here the fun – as much as state appropriations can be fun – would start. Public hearings begin Monday in Augusta on repairing Maine’s fiscal position, starting with a $95 million balancing act, and a solution remains elusive.

“We’ve got a long way to go here,” says Sen. John Nutting, D-Leeds, who proposes cutting a slate of administrative positions. His list was reviewed Thursday by the Legislature’s Appropriations Committee.

We respect Nutting’s zeal. He’s pushed these cuts for months and, it turns out, he’s been partially right. Some 20 positions he identified were included in the governor’s curtailment or proposed supplemental budget.

Headhunting alone won’t fill the hole, although it may make frustrated taxpayers feel better. In reality, the bulk of the upcoming cuts “are going to hurt,” says Senate President Beth Edmonds, a Democrat from Freeport.

Here’s the problem: where Maine spends the most general fund money – 80 percent for education and social services – is fraught with mandates and heartbreak. Cuts in these areas can run afoul of legal responsibilities, and legitimate, compassionate care programs for Mainers.

Given the difficulty in, and strong opposition to, such cuts, lawmakers spend time searching for nickels and dimes in the remaining 20 percent. Unfortunately, it takes a lot of loose change to equal $95 million, if it’s even possible.

Such cuts would cut deep.

In a caucus, this would be a moment of truth. In the reality of Augusta, this is why we elect representatives – to make the difficult choices that make the best sense for Maine, especially when it comes to its finances.

Some good work, like by the governor and Sen. Nutting, has been done. The administrative waistline is a lush savings target, but it’s still not fleshy enough. When this belt-tightening ends, cuts to critical services will likely prove unavoidable, and the state will supply less of what many Mainers consider vital.

Yet in this budget crisis, where answers are few and questions many, this is the avenue toward fiscal certainty.