Political races are a lot like stories; whoever can tell the most compelling one usually wins. The Sen. Susan Collins-Rep. Tom Allen race for U.S. Senate is no exception.

There are several stories being written about Collins.

Allen is spinning Collins as a pleasant lady who has consistently missed critical opportunities to stand up to President Bush. Collins is portraying herself as a hard worker who is tirelessly dedicated to serving Maine citizens.

The “missed opportunities” narrative focuses on Collins’ unwillingness or inability to ask the hard questions to the Bush administration on Iraq. More precisely, it focuses on her early reluctance to challenge Bush on how our money was being spent in Iraq, when she was the chair of the Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee.

There have been numerous reports of private contractors, such as KBR and Halliburton, cheating the government in Iraq. For example, there are allegations of new trucks with flat tires being burned (instead of fixed) because the government would pay more to replace the trucks. Allen was recently quoted as saying that “Sen. Collins should have been doing investigations, holding hearings and calling contractors on the carpet.”

The extent of the possible financial mismanagement is staggering. A BBC report estimates that approximately $23 billion may have been not properly accounted for, stolen or lost in Iraq. However this is not a top story for the media, because a gag order is stopping dialogue of the allegations.

Collins’ unwillingness to publicly stand up early and often and raise questions about how the Iraq war was being financed wasn’t just a small mistake. It was an abdication of legislative leadership on what has become the most important American military commitment of this century.

It is a strong story that could resonate with voters.

Collins’ narrative on Iraq is she has been doing her oversight job. She has sponsored legislation regarding the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction; specifically creating and reauthorizing funding for it. Moreover, she joined with Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., in calling for the State Department and Pentagon to create a system to improve their assessment of private security contracts.

Regardless of story, though, it is not to Collins’ advantage to discuss Iraq. It only reminds voters of an unpopular war and the political party most responsible for it. She cannot win on her war record.

Collins’ winning narrative is illustrated by the themes of her Web sites. Her Senate one emphasizes humanitarian and domestic issues. When I checked it last week, the three lead stories highlighted were: “Senator Collins Receives Award From Bread For The World,” “Senator Collins Meets With Maine Advocates For ‘Adoption Equality Act,'” and “Senator Collins Introduces Bill To Help Truck Drivers Burdened By High Diesel Prices.”

She has a photograph on that same Web site posing with the mascot of Downeast Energy and Building Supply Company (Captain Puffin) as well as children. Other photographs include her and the YMCA Maine Youth Governor and various Maine students.

Meanwhile, her campaign Web site features stories of her christening a fast boat built in East Boothbay, an economic recovery bill she has recently submitted and her effort to save a Millinocket mill from closing.

These images and stories probably resonate with most of the electorate. They reinforce her image of dedicated service to good causes and Maine people, while bringing up the hottest campaign issue: the economy.

But what storyline will prevail? Maybe both. It is possible to criticize Collins on Iraq while believing she is a hard worker who advocates for average Mainers.

A key to this race will be the unenrolled voters; which are a plurality of our electorate. Are they so frustrated with the mess our country is in that they vote to toss out Collins? Or will they reward her service, analytically separate her from the national GOP, and vote her back in?

Allen wants Collins to be directly tied to her party in the clearest way possible. He knows this will probably be a big year for Democrats and wants to take advantage of this climate. Thus he must try to nationalize this race; emphasize the stakes are too high to simply pull the lever for dedicated hard work.

The issues are just too important this time.

However, if he nationalizes the race too blatantly, he will open himself to criticism that he is out-of-touch with the majority of Mainers. Collins could subtly remind people this race is for US Senator from Maine.

There are many storylines in this campaign.

One thing is for sure: each campaign will do its best to control how these stories are told.

Columnist’s note:

This is my last column as an Inside Maine contributor. I have enjoyed the privilege of regularly sharing my observations with you since October 2004. I appreciate the Sun Journal for allowing me this space.

Thanks and best wishes to my readers.

Karl Trautman is chairperson of the social sciences department at Central Maine Community College. He received his doctorate in political science from the University of Hawaii. He can be reached at [email protected].