Control of Maine’s Senate hinges on several key races, most notably the battle in Androscoggin County between Republican incumbent Sen. Lois Snowe-Mello of Poland and Democratic challenger Rep. Deb Simpson of Auburn.

The Democrats, who are expected to maintain their solid majority in the House, currently enjoy just a one-seat majority in the state Senate, though they are optimistic they will expand their numbers. The Republicans say they have a chance to take over in the Senate.

Both sides agree the race between Simpson and Snowe-Mello is extremely competitive, and outside groups, including the Maine Democratic Party and the Maine GOP, have invested heavily on behalf of the candidates. About $87,000 in independent expenditures have been funneled into the race, more than any other state legislative race in Maine.

“It could go either way,” said Peter Chandler, chairman of the Maine Democratic Coordinated Campaign, of the local race. “I do believe we will maintain the majority in the state Senate and I think we have a very good chance at expanding that majority as well.”

Chandler said the Democrats could end up winning between 21 and 23 seats, overall.

Of the 35 seats that make up the Maine Senate, there are eight open seats. Five of the open seats were held by Democrats, three by Republicans.

Mark Ellis, chairman of the Maine Republican Party, said local Maine races will be determined by the individual candidates and not the national political winds, which appear to be favoring Democrats.

“I think we’re going to flip it to our side,” Ellis said of the state Senate. “It’s all local. Mainers are notoriously independent and generally I think they vote for who they trust. I’m excited and enthusiastic.”

For their part, neither Simpson nor Snowe-Mello is ready to claim victory before the polls close.

“It’s in the hands of the voters pretty much at this point,” Simpson said. “I am cautiously optimistic.”

Snowe-Mello said she is glad Election Day has finally arrived.

“I think I’ve done as much as I can,” Snowe-Mello said. “I’ve been doing this 12 years and you never take anything for granted, especially this year.”

And while the heat is on Snowe-Mello to retain her seat for the Republicans in Androscoggin County, Democratic incumbent Peter Bowman of Kittery is facing similar pressure in York County.

Bowman, just elected to the Senate two years ago, is being challenged by former state legislator Mary Andrews of York, in another key race.

“That’s one we’re really after,” Ellis said. “It’s our best chance to unseat a Democratic incumbent.”

Independent expenditures in the Andrews-Bowman race total about $85,000.

The third hotly contested battle is for an open seat in Knox County, currently held by Republican Sen. Christine Savage of Union, who is prevented from running again due to term limits.

Reps. David Miramant, D-Camden, and Christopher Rector, R-Thomaston, are facing off in the race, which has had about $75,000 in independent expenditure spending.

Both Democrats and Republicans are quick to claim that in Maine races especially “all politics is local,” but each side also admits that wider political landscapes are affecting their candidates’ chances.

Ellis of the Maine GOP said widespread disappointment in the school consolidation process and the unpopularity of the beverage tax passed to help pay for the DirigoHealth program have been two issues where Republicans have been on the same side as most voters.

“Those two issues have been key in certain districts,” he said.

Chandler, of the Democratic Coordinated Campaign, said the massive get-out-the-vote efforts of his party will benefit local Democratic candidates statewide.

“All things being equal, who knows,” Chandler said of some tight local races. “But because of our efforts to get-out-the-vote and the excitement generated by Barack Obama, then I think these races that are close end up being tipped our way.”

Senate Minority Leader Carol Weston, R-Montville, agreed the national trend favors Democrats, but said that does not necessarily hurt local Republican candidates.

“I would use 2006 as an example,” she said. Despite strong anti-war sentiment that swept Democrats into power in both houses of the U.S. Congress, “we still gained a Republican in the Maine Senate, the only (state Senate) on the East Coast to do so,” Weston said.

Senate Majority Leader Libby Mitchell, D-Vassalboro, said it is indeed a good year to be a Democrat running for office.

“It won’t win the race for you, you still have to be a good candidate, but it might give you the edge,” she said.

No matter which party wins control, the celebration will likely be short. With projections for the national and local economy down, the Legislature faces tough challenges ahead. Gov. John Baldacci has already instituted government spending freezes and directed department heads to find places to cut. Setting a new state budget will be the top priority for the incoming Legislature.

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