LEWISTON — If Iraqi refugees were to move to Lewiston, they would join a burgeoning immigrant population boosting the city’s population.

Seven years after Somali immigrants began relocating to Lewiston, the city estimates there are 3,500 immigrant residents now, with the number expected to crest to more than 4,000 in 2009.

“The last few years we’ve averaged 25 to 30 arrivals a month,” according to Deputy City Administrator Phil  Nadeau, a number that is not reflected in the 2007 adjusted Census figures.

In the 2000 Census, Nadeau said, Lewiston had the largest out-migration of residents of any Maine city. “I don’t see that repeating itself in 2010,” he said, with Somalis and a great variety of other immigrants continuing to move to the city seeking safe neighborhoods and good schools.

The city’s population figures are not virtual counts of residents as they move in since there is no reporting requirement for residents, immigrants or otherwise, but are estimations based on general assistance applications. City officials make assumptions of population based on GA numbers, but the estimations correlate pretty well with new students in city schools, Nadaeau said, so he’s pretty sure the figures are close to real counts.

As we approach the 2010 Census, Nadeau predicts a real shift in the population demographics.

“We have a new set of circumstances here in the city,” he said, and officials are already talking about the critical need to ensure each resident is counted in 2010 to ensure the city receives adequate federal and state funding to support its population.

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates it undercounted Americans by about 4 percent in the 1990 Census, a problem repeated during the 2000 Census, with an estimated undercount of 1.8 percent, or 3 million people, costing the undercounted communities something close to $4.1 billion in federal funding over the 2002-2012 fiscal period, according to the Census Bureau.

According to that bureau, Congress relies on the census to set allocation parameters for various federal grant programs, including Medicaid and foster care reimbursement rates.

Undercounting is most prevalent in urban areas where populations are dense and some people, including many immigrants and refugees, are not aware of the purpose of the constitutionally required Census and avoid being counted. In 1990 and again in 2000, the greatest undercounts were seen among African-American adults and children of various national origins.

In addition to the federal government relying on the Census count to distribute funds, state governments and many state-funded grant programs rely on Census figures to allocate funds. In communities where the population is undercounted, many grant programs become underfunded to meet the demand in their respective communities, forcing cuts in social support.

Nadeau said it’s critical for Lewiston to avoid this unintentional trim in funding city-provided services and programs, including some school staff positions that received federal aid, as a result of any undercount in 2010.

“We need an accurate count in 2010,” Nadeau said, “as dollars and cents will be attached to it.”

He and other city leaders are talking about what “we’re going to do as a community to make sure that people understand how important it is to be counted,” Nadeau said, in the time leading up to the next Census survey.

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