Beware the Rangers.

That’s the advice offered here, particularly for the Yankees. It goes against every fiber of their being, but Yankees fans need to learn how to root for the hated Red Sox.

If the Red Sox hold off the Rangers in the American League wild-card race, the Yankees almost certainly will play the Tigers when the playoffs begin in three weeks. If the Red Sox fail to hold on to their edge over the Rangers – two games entering the weekend – then the Yankees probably would face the Rangers, who project to be a more dangerous playoff opponent than the Angels, Tigers or Red Sox.

The teams that are the toughest to beat in October are ones with balance, especially when any imbalance is tilted toward pitching and defense. They are also teams that have played their best later in the season, not the ones holding on after fast starts.

Those premises identify the Rockies and Cardinals, respectively, as the National League teams best set for the postseason, not the Phillies and Dodgers. They point to the Yankees and Rangers – yes, the Rangers – as the AL teams capable of having the longest runs.

When the regular season ends, we will seed the playoff teams 1 through 8, using a system devised in 2007. It quantifies teams’ run production and run prevention abilities, with extra weight given to clubs that pitch and defend and have done their best work after the All-Star break.

That formula revealed the Rockies as the best NL team in 2007 before they even had beaten the Padres in a one-game playoff for the wild-card spot. It correctly predicted the outcome of six of seven playoff series. The results didn’t hold up quite as well in 2008, but the system did identify the Rays as the second-strongest AL playoff team, a tick behind the Red Sox (whom the Rays beat in a seven-game ALCS).

Throw out the Cubs, who lost series they were projected to win in 2007 and ’08, and our formula – devoid of the pull of media or sentimental attachment – has a 75 percent success rate in predicting postseason outcomes.

There was a time this season that the Tigers and Dodgers were the class of their leagues. But that has been some time ago, with the marathon nature of the season revealing flaws. The Rangers and Rockies have continued to get stronger.

The Rangers stumbled out of the gate 10-12, but a surprisingly strong pitching staff – and the glove work of rookie shortstop Elvis Andrus -contributed to a .590 winning percentage the next 117 games. Since the All-Star break, the Rangers have won five of six from the Red Sox at home and won series at Anaheim and New York. They are 20-10 against the Angels, Yankees and Red Sox.

Since moving to The Ballpark in Arlington in 1994, the Rangers have tried to slug their way to a World Series. They reached the playoffs three times with teams built around Juan Gonzalez, Rafael Palmeiro and Ivan Rodriguez but always struggled to win tough games. This year’s team is different.

Thanks to the work of a faceless starting rotation headed by Cy Young candidate Scott Feldman, the success of a bullpen in which Frank Francisco and C.J. Wilson have double-figure save totals and infield defense that improved markedly when Andrus arrived, shifting Michael Young to third base, the Rangers are preventing runs as well any AL team.

Reaching the playoffs remains a major hurdle for the Rangers. They have seven games remaining against the Angels but seem unlikely to overcome a five-game deficit in the West. Their fans will be conflicted this week as the Red Sox host the Angels on Tuesday through Thursday, but the Rangers probably would be helped out by their division rival winning those games.

The wild-card race seems likely to go down to the last 10 games. The Red Sox play the Yankees, Blue Jays and Indians, while the Rangers face the Rays, Angels and Mariners, with the last seven games on the road. If they can survive that to reach the playoffs, they will be a tough test for the Yankees.

Wild-card teams have reached the World Series eight times in the last nine years, winning four championships. The Rangers, believe it or not, are more likely to continue that tradition than the Red Sox.

Shrinking the staff: Yankees general manager Brian Cashman and manager Joe Girardi are facing a choice they could do without. As the AL team with the most victories, the Yankees will have to choose between playing the “A” or “B” series in the first round.

The “A” version allows eight days for five games, one more than the “B” series. The difference determines if you need three or four starters, with Joba Chamberlain the guy who could be bumped.

Most expect the Yankees to go with “A,” which would allow CC Sabathia to start four of the first nine or 10 playoff games, depending on the length of a first-round series. Sabathia could make eight post-season starts if Girardi opted to work him consistently on three days’ rest throughout October. The wiser plan is to trust your pitching depth, knowing you’re open to a second guess either way you go.

Winning hand: Tim Lincecum’s back problems could leave voters picking between the Cardinals’ Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright for the Cy Young Award. Wainwright leads the NL in victories (18), while Carpenter entered the weekend with the ERA lead (2.16).

Those two allowed only one run in 391/3 innings at Miller Park this season, leaving the Brewers swinging at thin air.

“Carpenter and Wainwright are tough,” Brewers catcher Jason Kendall said. “They put the ball where they want to almost every time. Both have good breaking balls and a lot of movement on their fastball. They stay out of the middle (of the plate).”

Brewers manager Ken Macha says Carpenter throws harder, but he gives Wainwright an edge with his changeup.

“They both know how to maneuver the ball,” Macha said.

Tough guy: Grady Sizemore had surgery on his left elbow last Wednesday and will have a more serious procedure done this week, repairing damage to the abdominal wall on his left side. He suffered both injuries in spring training but wanted to play through them, and the Indians agreed to his plan.

That seems a little crazy given the Indians’ 31-49 start and the impact on Sizemore, who had his worst season (.248, 18 homers, 64 RBIs, 13 stolen bases in 106 games).

“I knew going into the season it was going to be a tough year for me,” he said. “I was just hoping I could go long enough to help my team win some games.”

Sizemore said there was discussion about having both surgeries in April, which would have gotten him back on the field in June.

“I could have gone that route,” he said. “But I didn’t want to start the season with surgeries, so I decided to begin the season with it. You never know how it’s going to affect you, but I was able to play hurt.”

Sizemore is expected to be 100 percent for spring training.

The last word: “Obviously they haven’t done a good job of anything for a long time. They haven’t signed good free agents. They haven’t made good trades. They haven’t developed many good players, and the ones they have developed, they’ve traded away for nothing. The record speaks for itself.” – Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez, who started his career in Pittsburgh, on the Pirates’ 17 consecutive losing seasons.

THE WHISPERS

Ryne Sandberg has added to his managerial portfolio by guiding Double-A Tennessee into the Southern League playoffs. He’s making a compelling case for himself as the eventual replacement for Lou Piniella. … The Tigers don’t plan to add Dontrelle Willis this month, making you wonder if they will decide to eat the remaining $12 million on his deal this winter. His diagnosis remains anxiety disorder. … Jose Reyes (right) is upset at the Mets for not disclosing the severity of the hamstring injury that has kept him out for four months. Some believe he should go ahead and have surgery now, but he wants to get back on the field, even if it’s only for the last week. He says he’s willing to play winter ball if he can avoid surgery. … Make it 12 straight losing years for the Orioles, five fewer than the Pirates’ record run. It’s time for owner Peter Angelos to bridge the differences with Cal Ripken Jr. and bring the Hall of Fame shortstop into some role. The problem is Ripken wants to own the Orioles, not work for Angelos. … The Twins are considering re-signing Carl Pavano, who beat the Blue Jays’ Roy Halladay on Wednesday. … The Rangers and Indians played three games in a 24-hour span last week, with the Rangers scoring 31 runs. … Clay Buchholz is doing well since being forced into the No. 3 starter’s spot for the Red Sox. He has won three starts in a row, offsetting the uncertain status of Tim Wakefield, whose back is allowing him to start only once every 10 days. … Angels outfielder Vladimir Guerrero seems almost certain to end his run of 25-homer, .300 seasons at 11, remaining tied with Lou Gehrig. … Lefty Madison Bumgarner, 20, was impressive in his debut for the Giants but didn’t have the low- to mid-90s velocity that has allowed him to dominate in the minors. The Giants’ rotation should really be good with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Barry Zito and Bumgarner next season. … Brad Lidge can’t say Charlie Manuel wasn’t patient before pulling him as the closer. Don’t be surprised if Manuel resurrects him before the playoffs. The Phillies also are worried about Northwestern product J.A. Happ, who is out with a strained rib cage. … Hanley Ramirez’s stroll to a batting title is overshadowing his improved fielding. The Marlins shortstop entered the weekend with eight errors after committing 26 as a rookie in 2006. National League managers ranked the Phillies’ Jimmy Rollins, the Rockies’ Troy Tulowitzki and Ramirez as the best defensive shortstops in a survey by Baseball America. … Randy Wolf, who has been the Dodgers’ best starter, needed a cortisone injection in his elbow Wednesday. Wolf hurt himself hitting. The Rockies’ Ubaldo Jimenez and Jose Contreras were injured running the bases last week. … The Braves’ Javier Vazquez registered his fifth 200-strikeout season. The only other active starters with at least five: Randy Johnson (13), Pedro Martinez (nine), John Smoltz (five) and Johan Santana (five). … Aaron Poreda has been hit hard since being traded from the White Sox to the Padres. He had a 7.16 ERA in seven games with Triple-A Portland. … Jim Riggleman is catching some heat for not playing prospects in Washington. That’s par for the course with an interim manager trying to get a full-time gig. … Finally, hats off to Chris Richard for perseverance. The first baseman-outfielder was called up last week by the Rays, getting back to the big leagues for the first time since April 30, 2003. He went straight from the ballpark in Durham, N.C., to the airport, not stopping at home to pack, because the Rays wanted him in New York for the second game of a doubleheader against the Yankees.

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