Out from behind the masks they come. The true identities of the trick or treaters are now being revealed.

Just as our Halloween mysteries are being solved, so soon will be the outcomes of this year’s historic referenda. In the just over 100 years the petition-initiated voting process has been available in Maine, at no time there been this many at once: marriage, marijuana, mergers of school districts, car taxes and TABOR II. (Plus a transportation bond issue and a constitutional amendment.)

Here’s a quick final perspective — from an historic context — on a few, though by no means all, questions on the ballot:

• Same-sex marriage: Maine voters have split evenly on four gay rights referenda. A 1995 proposal to prohibit local governments from enacting gay rights ordinances was defeated, an initial triumph for gay rights supporters who had already enacted one in Portland.

The next two rounds saw gay rights opponents prevail. The first was the successful February 1998 people’s veto of a gay rights law. The second was the defeat of a second gay rights law that the Legislature itself sent to referendum in November 2000. Then in 2005, gay rights supporters came back to defeat an attempted People’s Veto of the gay rights legislation that’s now on the books.

The pending question — gay marriage — is also a people’s veto vote. This means that those favoring the law should vote “No” while those who wish to overturn it should vote “Yes.”

Such a stand-on-one’s-head voting wasn’t always the case in Maine law. People’s veto votes before the 1990s asked whether voters wished to “ratify” a challenged law, rather than “reject” it. The present method of posing people’s veto questions tends to favor those wishing to keep an existing law on the books.

As Bowdoin Political Science Professor Chris Potholm recently told me in an interview, “Usually the “no” has a five percent advantage at the end because if people are confused or in doubt, they usually vote no.” On gay marriage this year, for example, he observed, “It might have been harder to see gay marriage as a concept as opposed to ‘don’t take away equality’ in Maine.”

Though polls suggest “No on l” has assumed the lead, polling in previous referenda did overstate gay rights support. It’s thus still anyone’s guess how Question l will turn out.

• Excise tax: When given a chance, Maine voters usually take a hard swing against taxes tied to driving. Question 2 on this year’s ballot parallels a 1958 referendum on increases to vehicle license and registration fees. Voters torpedoed that one almost five to one.

Voters also administered lopsided defeats to three different attempts to hike the gas tax, though this was between 1929 to 194l. Last year’s 65 percent vote against increasing in beverage taxes is but the most recent example of the tax trend. But these referenda were all people’s vetoes of a  tax increase before it could take effect.

History has delivered a more mixed verdict when it comes to erasing an existing levy from the books. In 197l, Maine went three to one against repealing the income tax, even though in 1977, a 57-43 percent vote overturned the Uniform Property Tax.

• Bond issues: The transportation bond has stirred little media attention. Votes on bonding often mirror the economy; thus the recession may spell trouble for the $71 million Question 6. The most recent bond issue, on last November’s ballot, squeaked by with 50.3-percent of the vote. (That was for a mere $3.4-million for cleaner drinking water.) The outcome there could be a bad omen for Tuesday’s vote.

Nevertheless, a $30 million transportation bond won 60 percent voter approval in June 2008. In the last 14 years, 46 of 48 bonds proposed have managed to pass. (Those that didn’t: a 2002 prison bond and a 2005 University of Maine/Community College proposal).

On the other hand, from 1990-1994 — the era of a teetering economy a bit like the present — only half the 34 bond issues launched by the Legislature managed to float down the river of voter approval.

• Constitutional amendment: The record for constitutional amendments is not as favorable as bond issues, though still stronger than citizen initiatives. Of the 165 amendements proposed since 1910, 83 percent have passed. In the last 25 years, the record isn’t quite so resounding, but the recent historic odds favor proponents: 67 percent of the 29 amendements proposed in the last quarter-century have been ratified.

It’s worth noting that Maine — unlike California and 17 other states — don’t allow citizen initiatives to put constitutional amendments on the ballot. Voters must approve them but they cannot propose them. It’s why TABOR II, for example, is directed at local spending. Only a constitutional amendment, or in some cases a gubernatorial veto, can override the Legislature’s decisions on tax and appropriations at the state level.

Overall, turnout could approach the off-year record of 51 percent set in 2003 (turnout surpassed 500,000 for the only time in an off-year). Over $10-million dollars was spent in that historic campaign about casinos. This year’s referenda spending combined likely won’t approach that level,  even though the turnout may.

Of all holidays, Halloween is the day for mysteries and obscuring identities.

On Election Day, Nov. 3, everything is revealed. 

Paul H. Mills is a Farmington attorney well known for his analyses and
historical understanding of Maine’s political scene. He can be reached
by e-mail at [email protected].