People talk about the national debt problem as if it’s something somebody else did to us. You know, like irresponsible politicians feeding harebrained pork projects to their cronies and home districts.
Of course, there’s some of that, but a recent issue of the Kiplinger newsletter cast an interesting light on how we got to this tipping point in our national life.
And, make no mistake, we are at a tipping point. By year’s end, our collective national debt will probably hit $14.3 trillion.
It will then equal 100 percent of our gross domestic product, the point at which many economists feel bad things begin to happen quickly.
The Kiplinger newsletter compared our federal budget priorities of 1968 with those of 2011.
In ’68, military spending consumed nearly half of the national budget, or 46 percent. This was, of course, at the height of the Vietnam War.
Today, we are fighting two wars, yet defense is only 19.6 percent of the 2011 federal budget.
For most of the 25 major lines in the federal budget, it’s interesting to note how little most things have changed.
Veterans benefits, education, transportation, international aid, farm subsidies will all be about the same or a smaller slice of the federal pie than in ’68.
Even net interest paid on the national debt is about the same — 6.2 percent of the budget in 1968 and 6.5 percent in 2011.
So, what’s changed? Plenty.
Social Security will go from 13.3 percent of national outlays in ’68 to 19 percent in 2011.
Medicare will increase from a mere 2.6 percent of spending then to 13 percent in 2011.
Medicaid was 1.1 percent back then and will go to 7.8 percent in 2011.
On a smaller scale, food stamps were 0 percent of the budget then, but will be 2 percent in 2011.
Housing subsidies were 0 percent in 1968, but will be 1.7 percent in 2011.
Supplemental Security Income was 0 percent in 1968 and will be 1.3 percent in 2011.
Nutritional programs: 0 percent then and 0.7 percent in 2011.
Low-income tax credit: 0 percent vs. 1.2 percent in 2011.
In fact, if you add all that up, while throwing in military spending and debt service, you have 73 percent of all federal spending.
As you can see, our priorities have certainly shifted — much more federal money going to old people and poor people than in 1968.
In the early 1960s, 35 percent of the elderly lived in poverty. Today, fewer than 10 percent do.
It is estimated that without Social Security income, 46.8 percent of today’s elderly would live in poverty. In Florida alone, Social Security lifts 1.1 million elderly people above the poverty line, reducing the state’s elderly poverty rate from 50.2 percent to 8.7 percent.
And therein lies the unsettling problem for today’s politicians. Everyone deplores the national debt, and everyone talks about the “hard choices” that must be made.
Yet, no politician can sustain a career that includes cutting Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Or worse, running on a platform of raising taxes to actually pay for these programs.
Yes, as the Kiplinger comparison shows, there’s a national debt problem, and the “hard choices” will be very hard indeed.
Comments are no longer available on this story