Like forecasting the weather, looking ahead to October and predicting what kind of a fall it will be for grouse and woodcock hunters can be a dicey business: part science and part guesswork. Last fall, the whereabouts of grouse really seemed to be dependent upon the roll of the dice.

In some spots, the popular upland game bird seemed to have disappeared altogether, while in other areas of the state grouse were plentiful in pockets. The one constant seemed to be the northern factor: the farther north hunters travelled the more likely they were to find these so-called “grouse pockets.”

You would think that grouse, like other critters, would be more plentiful in more southerly areas of the state that experienced more moderate winters. But according to state game bird biologist Brad Allen, “Grouse populations (up North) were high last fall, the fourth highest ever reported based on data collected during the 2009 moose hunts.”

Go figure.

One cause of this, according to Allen, may have been less seasonal rainfall up north during the spring nesting season in 2009.

Back along, before I came down with a serious Colorado elk-hunt addiction, my English Setter Sally and I used to spend more time in the Maine bird woods. After some kitchen table counselling, though, I have my addiction under control, at least for now, and Sally and I plan to stay home and get reacquainted with Maine’s most splendid month. Additionally, there is a certain amount of personal guilt that accumulates when, for two many falls in a row, you leave a loyal, aging gun dog pining listlessly on the back porch. Indeed, getting Sally back in the Maine bird covers will be good for both of us.

And based on Brad Allen’s prognosis, Sally and I could not have picked a better year to get serious again about grouse gunning!

Here’s some of what Brad has to say about the upland bird outlook.

“This year I’m pleased to announce that nesting conditions in April and May 2010 were close to perfect, and again I’m excited about the prospect for abundant fall game bird populations…. Success of nests and survival of young is best when rain comes slowly and less than average amounts hit the ground during May and June. Pleasant (and two weeks early) spring weather and habitat conditions in Maine this past spring created conditions for game birds that were much better than most recent spring conditions. I predict that upland bird hunting and fall wild turkey hunting will be improved this year. Also, hunting success should be good statewide. Northern Maine will again be a bright spot for grouse and woodcock hunting.”

With regard to woodock prospects, here are Brad’s comments:

“Despite my own personal observations on woodcock numbers, the indices for singing male woodcock are not significantly different than 2009. The singing ground survey was developed to exploit the conspicuous display of the male woodcock. These counts provide an index to the population and can be used to monitor annual changes. I thought the statewide results would be higher in 2010 as the surveys I conducted in late April translated to significantly more woodcock. But when all the data were tallied across the state, Maine’s index was only slightly better than 2009.”

Fall turkey hunt prospects?

“The relationship between May rainfall totals and wild turkey production has been well studied. Quite simply, when May rainfall totals are near average, average production follows. When May rainfall totals are significantly less than average, good production ensues. The average amount of rain in May in Maine is 3.6 inches. In several areas of the turkey range in Maine, rainfall totals were much less this year. The bottom line is beaucoup wild turkey poults. This should translate to an abundant population of birds for fall wild turkey hunters.”

What about waterfowl?

“Nationwide, waterfowl populations should be quite similar to last year. And not surprisingly, so should waterfowl hunting season lengths and bag limits. A recent U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service report summarized information about the status of duck populations and wetland habitats during spring 2010. The data show a population of 40.9 million ducks in the survey area. This estimate was similar to last year’s estimate of 42.0 million birds and was 21% above the long-term average.”

Brad says that there should be plenty of Canada goose available again this year for early goose hunters. Overall a great fall to be in the woods with your favorite gundog. Hunt safely, read your lawbook and make sure that you can tell the difference between a grouse and a partridge. Good hunting.

The author is editor of the Northwoods Sporting Journal and has written his first book, A Maine Deer Hunter’s Logbook. He is also a Maine Guide, co-host of a weekly radio program “Maine Outdoors” heard Sundays at 7 p.m. on The Voice of Maine News-Talk Network (WVOM-FM 103.9, WCME-FM 96.7) and former information officer for the Maine Dept. of Fish and Wildlife. His e-mail address is [email protected].