An independently commissioned poll released Tuesday shows Republican gubernatorial candidate Paul LePage maintaining a slim lead over Democrat Elizabeth “Libby” Mitchell.

The survey of 500 likely voters was conducted between Oct. 11 and Oct. 15 by Pan Atlantic SMS Group in Portland. The survey had LePage leading Mitchell 33 percent to 28 percent with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.

The poll had independent Eliot Cutler pulling in 14 percent. That’s a significant difference from a Rasmussen survey released last week that gave the Cape Elizabeth attorney more than 20 percent.

Over the weekend, Cutler’s campaign released internal polling showing their candidate nearly even with Mitchell and within striking distance of LePage.

Ted O’Meara, Cutler’s campaign manager, said the data showed his candidate was drawing undecided voters. O’Meara added that LePage was losing support while Mitchell had “peaked” and was “fading.”

Momentum in the polls could be critical to Cutler’s chances on Election Day. Political analysts have previously noted that Cutler must show marked progress to break through the viability wall — the theory that Mainers won’t vote for him because they don’t think he can win.

However, despite a similar number of respondents, some data in the Rasmussen survey and Cutler’s internal polling differs sharply from Pan Atlantic’s poll.

The Pan Atlantic poll showed undecided voters at 20 percent, nearly one-third of those surveyed. Rasmussen ranked undecided voters at 6 percent. Cutler’s internal poll had 9 percent undecided.

The Rasmussen survey was an automated poll that included a “force choice” that only included three of the five candidates, LePage, Mitchell and Cutler.

Independents Shawn Moody and Kevin Scott were not options in the Rasmussen poll. They were in the Pan Atlantic poll. Moody had 5 percent, while Scott was 0.5 percent.

The force choice, Pan Atlantic pollster Patrick Murphy said, might account for Rasmussen’s low number of undecided voters.

The Pan Atlantic survey also showed Democratic incumbents in the state’s two congressional districts with significant leads over GOP challengers.

The results showed 2nd Congressional District Rep. Mike Michaud, D-Maine, with a 19-point lead over Republican Jason Levesque, 49 percent to 30 percent.

In the 1st District, Rep. Chellie Pingree, D-Maine, had a 16-point lead over GOP challenger Dean Scontras, 49 percent to 33 percent.

The survey also showed a close race in the Oxford casino referendum, which will be Question 1 on the state ballot. More than 49 percent said they would support the casino, nearly 45 percent said they would oppose it, and 6.2 percent were undecided.

smistler@sunjournal.com

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