Nuggets from the notebook while exploring the political maneuvering for the soon-to-be vacant District 20 Senate seat … 

Last week, state Sen. David Trahan, R-Waldoboro, announced he will resign his Senate seat to take over as the executive director of the Sportsman’s Alliance of Maine.

Trahan’s plans to join SAM were reported last month. At the time, Trahan indicated that he would like to keep his legislative post while leading the organization, a dual role that some worried would lead to a conflict of interest.

Even though Trahan will likely take over at SAM in October, he plans to resign from the Senate sometime in December before the beginning of the second legislative session.

That means that instead of filling his vacancy in the November election, another  special election will be held — the fourth of the 125th Legislature — most likely in February. 

Trahan said the reason he was waiting until December was so he could participate in September’s special legislative session and continue working on the Taxation Committee through December.

But Democrats aren’t buying that reasoning.

Last week, Ben Grant, chairman of the Maine Democratic Party, questioned the timing of Trahan’s departure, saying District 20 could go two months without any representation.

“If Sen. Trahan knows he’s resigning, why is he waiting?” Grant said. “Why not just time the special election so it can be on the November ballot?”

Grant added that November could be a tough year for a Republican candidate given Gov. Paul LePage’s “massive unpopularity.”

But just as there may be other motives behind the timing of Trahan’s resignation, there may also be more behind Democrats’ questioning it.

Democrats think they can compete in District 20, even though Republicans have held the seat since 2002. Their chances improve if the election is held in November rather than in February.

That’s because the November election is expected to draw a decent turnout among unenrolled voters due to several referendums on gambling projects and an expected ballot measure to restore Election Day voter registration.

For Democrats fighting an uphill battle in a district that has leaned Republican in recent years, the higher turnout among unenrolled and independent voters increases the odds of an upset, particularly if those voters cast their ballot based on an unfavorable perception of LePage, a Republican.

By holding a special election in February, the scales tilt back toward Republicans because the turnout will likely be comprised of each party’s base. And in District 20 the GOP base has the edge over Democrats, at least since 2002.

The theory cuts the same way for Republicans trying to win in a left-leaning, but competitive district. The lower the turnout, the less chance for victory. 

Democrats haven’t questioned the timing of the special election for House District 121, which will be held Aug. 16. The district, which represents part of Cape Elizabeth, has been dominated by Democrats, meaning the party can focus primarily on mobilizing its base.

Meanwhile, Democrats are mum about potential challengers in Senate District 20. However, two Republicans are expected to step forward, Rep. Leslie Fossel, R-Alna, and Rep. Dana Dow, R-Waldoboro.

Republicans say their caucus will hold a meeting later this year to decide which candidate has the best chance of keeping District 20 red.

Don’t be surprised if they pick Dow, and not just because he’s held that Senate seat twice before and is feared by Democrats.

A successful Senate run by any of the aforementioned lawmakers means an open House seat. Republicans won’t just have to pick the best candidate for the Senate, but also ensure that they have a House candidate that can also win.

Fossel represents House District 53, a district held by Democrats for at least 14 years prior to 2008. If Fossel runs for the Senate, Republicans run the risk of losing his House seat and eroding what is already a thin majority in another special election next year.

Dutson to head MHPC

When Tarren Bragdon stepped down as CEO of the Maine Heritage Policy Center this spring, many wondered what was next for the conservative advocacy group.

Bragdon oversaw MHPC’s rise from a pesky opposition group to a driving force in Republican policy-making. Many credited Bragdon for being a shrewd political operator, as well. Not only did he play a major role in LePage’s transition team, he also became the architect and lead advocate for a new insurance law.

This week the organization announced the hiring of a new CEO, Lance Dutson. For Maine politicos, and especially Republicans, he is a familiar face.

Dutson was the online communications consultant for U.S. Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire. He also led the communications team for the Maine Republican Party during the 2010 election. Most recently he was the communications director for House Speaker Rep. Robert Nutting, R-Oakland.

Like Bragdon, Dutson is considered an operator with a talent for messaging. He and the Speaker’s Office played a significant role in crafting the GOP messaging for Bragdon’s controversial insurance overhaul.

It would seem that he’s also a good fit for MHPC’s quest for “open and accountable government,” too. In 2005, using Freedom of Access laws and his blog, the Maine Web Report, Dutson revealed questionable activity within the Maine Office of Tourism.

His efforts earned him a multimillion dollar defamation lawsuit by an advertising firm hired by the state. The suit was eventually dropped.

In a written welcome address, Dutson vowed to continue to probe government for “waste and corruption.”

He wrote, “MHPC will also expand its efforts to root out waste and unethical mismanagement within state government. If waste and corruption at the Maine Turnpike Authority went unseen for so many years, what other government agencies have committed the same injustices? We will find out.”

smistler@sunjournal.com

Copy the Story Link