It was a productive week at the State House. Against long odds, the unanimous budget report from the Appropriations Committee survived intact by better than the required two-thirds, landing on the governor’s desk with a loud thud.

Gov. Paul LePage, who’s been fulminating against the budget since before Appropriations took its final votes, is in danger of losing his aura just when all eyes are focused on the inevitable contest between legislative and executive branches provided by our state constitution.

Up to now, LePage has seen Republicans back all his vetoes, but the impression of dominance is misleading. Legislators are always hesitant to cross a governor of their own party, particularly one whose repertoire runs from cajolery to outright threats.

But the budget is different. You can’t vote for it, then against it, without repercussions with constituents, who resent this kind of flip-flopping. So support may hold.

The critical moment occurred Thursday afternoon when House Republican Leader Ken Fredette rose to spoke in favor of the budget, including its tax increases, ultimately carrying 22 Republicans with him. Fredette has been closely aligned with LePage, particularly on Medicaid, and this was his first big break from the governor. The end is still uncertain, yet Fredette’s decision was critical in moving the Legislature toward compromise after five months of standoffs.

But Budget Day was also notable for a surprise announcement from 2nd District Congressman Mike Michaud, who moved boldly toward a 2014 bid for governor. Yes, it’s an “exploratory committee,” but for someone who’s been around as long as Michaud, there’s nothing to explore. He’s running.

The timing was no accident. Michaud chose a moment of maximum visibility, and maximum vulnerability for Republicans, to stake his claim as Democratic nominee in a race that’s now set, 17 months before the election, with Eliot Cutler joining LePage and Michaud in another three-way contest.

The key issue could be the other one hanging fire at the State House – Medicaid.

Michaud, like all elected Democrats, supports providing health coverage under the Affordable Care Act he voted for a political eternity ago, in 2009. It finally takes full effect in January, and it’s not yet clear whether Maine will offer health care to 70,000 people who otherwise have no chance of getting it. Federal subsidies will help middle class workers buy private insurance, but this group – with wages just over the poverty line – has no other choice. It’s Medicaid or nothing.

Since the federal government is footing the entire bill, and in fact improving Maine’s bottom line by increasing funding for some people already covered, it seems incredible that Republicans, with few exceptions, are standing fast against accepting the program.

They’ve produced one disingenuous argument after another, each more misleading than the last. First, we had to wait until LePage could negotiate a better deal with the feds (against the law). Then we couldn’t trust the federal government to pay its Medicaid bills (never happened, never will.) And finally, we were told Maine must first cover 3,100 severely disabled people eligible for Medicaid but not funded. Rep. Deborah Sanderson had the gall to propose this amendment on the floor. It would cost $75 million in new state dollars, as opposed to the bonus created by covering the 70,000, and of course Sanderson offered no idea where that $75 million could come from.

Here’s the Republicans’ dilemma. If they do ultimately block expansion of Medicaid, activists will start working the next day to get the issue on the referendum ballot – knowing that polls show 70% support.

As with other recent referendum questions where the Legislature tried to thwart voters, it would be a powerful force behind Democratic campaigns, including Michaud’s.

If instead enough GOP legislators switch and allow Medicaid expansion, they’ll only widen the fractures in the party that threaten to become chasms.

Consider Arizona’s Republican governor, Jan Brewer – an icon of the tea party for her stand against immigration. Brewer shocked the all-Republican Legislature there by doing a reverse LePage, insisting that lawmakers pass the Medicaid expansion, and vowing to veto every bill late in the session to put pressure on lawmakers. Unlike LePage, she carried out her pledge.

Also on Thursday, she got her wish, with both House and Senate approving the Arizona Medicaid bill.

It’s simple. It makes sense to provide health care for everyone. Every other advanced nation has been doing it for 40 years. But Republicans are lying down on the tracks, and don’t seem to hear the whistle of the train that’s coming through.

Douglas Rooks is a former daily and weekly newspaper editor who has covered the State House for 28 years. He can be reached at drooks@tds.net.

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