LEWISTON — Voter anger and dissatisfaction with President Barack Obama did more than big money or a third-party candidacy to elect a wave of Republican candidates, including Gov. Paul LePage, on Nov. 4, a Bates College associate professor said Friday.
John Baughman said history and a canny Republican strategy also helped.
“How did LePage win?” Baughman asked attendees of a Great Falls Forum lecture. “It’s a question worth asking because his approval ratings were among the lowest of any governor in the country. And the Democrats, in Mike Michaud, were able to get arguably the strongest candidate they could have to run against (LePage).”
LePage earned 48.2 percent of the vote to Michaud’s 43.3 percent. Independent Eliot Cutler got 8.4 percent.
Though many people described Cutler as a spoiler in the election, Baughman believes Michaud would have lost whether or not Cutler had been a candidate.
Michaud would have needed 80 percent of Cutler’s vote to win, Baughman said.
Far more important was a Republican national strategy that aimed to stir up voters’ dissatisfaction with the Obama administration, the still-shaky economy and controlling Democrats.
“Republicans were able to harness this voter anger in favor of the candidates they were putting forward,” Baughman said. “Now, Republicans hold more seats in the House of Representatives than they have in more than 80 years.”
History helped.
Since World War II, the sitting president’s party has lost congressional seats during almost every mid-term election. There were only two exceptions: in 1998 following Clinton’s impeachment scandal and in 2002 following the 9/11 attacks.
However, Baughman cautioned against thinking people’s attitudes have changed as much as their preferences for leadership.
“On the one hand, we have sweeping Republican victories for offices at all levels in almost every part of the country,” Baughman said. “On the other hand, when we look at ballot referenda, the results tend to lean in a more liberal direction.”
Among changes people voted on in several states were hikes in the minimum wage, bond issues for public projects and marijuana legalization.
dhartill@sunjournal.com
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- John Baughman, an associate professor at Bates College, spoke about the November election Friday at the Lewiston Public Library as part of the Great Falls Forum lecture series.
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