DEAR SUN SPOTS: You’ve helped us many times; here are a couple more things.

My husband and I haven’t seen weatherman Kevin Mannix since we got back from Fryeburg Fair the first week of October. He is, or was, on WCSH Channel 6 in Portland. Did he retire or is he sick? Probably we’ll find out before you can answer this.

Also, I have a question about the day-to-day weather. For example, they say Monday will be 34 to 35 degrees. Can’t they get closer than that? Also, is that inland or coastal temperatures? They don’t say.

Another channel gives inland and coastal temperatures. They all have Doppler HD, but everyone is different. Can’t they read the instruments right, or do they just guess? In Western Maine where we live, The two channels we watch were right 28 percent of the time from Jan. 1 to Dec. 1, 2014. That’s not much. 

Thanks again. — Pulp Man’s Wife, Peru

ANSWER: Sun Spots found the following post on wcsh6.com:

“On the Monday Morning Report (Oct. 6), longtime weatherman Kevin Mannix announced he was moving to the noon show. Kevin has been a part of the News Center team since 1989 and has worked on the Morning Report almost the entire time.

“Kevin said he is moving to the noon so he can focus on producing more features based off his own ‘Kevin’s Story.’ Kevin shared his personal experience of shame and stigma last year, which stemmed from his father’s alcoholism. ‘Kevin’s Story’ won a Maine Association of Broadcaster’s award in September. Kevin and the News Center team will work on other stories about shame and stigma, which will air on the Morning Report.

“Kevin will be the noon weatherman, starting Oct. 20. Todd Gutner will move into the morning meteorologist position starting Oct. 13.”

As for the accuracy of weather reports, Sun Spots thinks expectations are a bit high. While meteorology is a science, it is one based on predicting what will happen if certain conditions exist. Conditions can change, so coming within a degree or two seems pretty good to Sun Spots.

Maine meteorologists have it particularly tough, as they have a huge area of wildly varying terrain to cover in just a few minutes of live TV. It is not surprising that they focus on the most populated part of the state from New Hampshire to Bangor and along the coast, which is where most of their viewers and ad revenue are.

Sun Spots is not a regular TV news viewer, but the times she has seen it, the weather person has often said things along the line of “3 to 6 inches of snow expected with higher amounts in the mountains.” On Maine Public Radio, they will give a range of temperatures, say 28 to 36, and you are supposed to judge based on where you live.

On previous questions about the weather, meteorologists have told Sun Spots that accuracy goes down rapidly the further out a prediction lies. She doesn’t know about the 28 percent cited, but if those numbers are based on a long-term forecast, she wouldn’t be surprised. Weather conditions can change rapidly — spontaneous showers can pop up, or a front might move more slowly or quickly than estimated.

Or, as PMW has noted, two meteorologists may look at the same data and see slightly different things. Or they may be focusing their forecasts on slightly different areas. With Maine’s terrain, temperatures can vary within just a few miles. Sun Spots lives less than 30 miles from Lewiston, but her weather is often different.

In an aside in her letter, PMW said that they don’t have a computer at home, maybe they are too old. Sun Spots doesn’t think so. PMW writes often, expressing a lively interest in many things going on. Just think of the world that will open up online for her.

Weather will be a great start. She can review the weather maps available online, which are scaled-down versions of what meteorologists use, and make her own predictions. There are several sites online for forecasts, including weather.com and the National Weather Service, but be prepared: Even though they are computer generated, they often don’t agree!

This column is for you, our readers. It is for your questions and comments. There are only two rules: You must write to the column and sign your name (we won’t use it if you ask us not to). Please include your phone number. Letters will not be returned or answered by mail, and telephone calls will not be accepted. Your letters will appear as quickly as space allows. Address them to Sun Spots, P.O. Box 4400, Lewiston, ME 04243-4400. Inquiries can also be emailed to sunspots@sunjournal.com.

Copy the Story Link