AUBURN — State economist Amanda Rector’s forecast for 2015 includes good job growth, good income growth, higher retail sales and a strong summer tourist season.

But, she told the Androscoggin County Chamber of Commerce on Thursday morning, that good news can’t gloss over a looming reality: Maine is old. There’s not enough people and there won’t be enough workers unless things change. 

It will take a mix of advocating outside the state, advertising what Maine has and watching policies to make sure they’re welcoming, Rector said.

“Make it easier for them to come here and find places where housing is affordable, taxes are low, they’re able to get all of the services they would look for and expect to see, good broadband connections,” she said, “making sure they know what’s out here.”

Asked by someone in the audience whether Maine has money to market that message, she said she’d have a better idea Friday, once Gov. Paul LePage releases his new budget.

Rector spoke to the chamber breakfast at the Hilton Garden Inn as part of the group’s traditional annual economic forecast. It’s been delivered in past years by professor and former state economist Charlie Colgan.

Using figures from Maine’s Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission, Rector said 2014 likely ended at 608,000 jobs in Maine, an improvement of 6,800 jobs over the end of 2013.

Another 6,000 to 7,000 jobs are forecast to be added in 2015. By the end of 2016, Maine could be close to its pre-recession high of 617,700 jobs.

She said to expect to see hiring in professional and business services and education and health services.

“I’m optimistic about 2015,” she said. “I think it’s going to be a pretty good year.”

Also in her forecast:

• Home sales have seen reasonable growth, and she anticipates that continuing, although interest rates are expected to rise in 2015, making new mortgages and new car loans more expensive.

• Lower gas and home heating oil prices are boosts to the local economy now, bringing relief after three winters of high prices, and may also entice more tourists this summer.

“Not just because it’s cheaper to get here but also because they have more money in their pockets in savings,” Rector said.

• Keep an eye on world economies. Europe, China and Japan aren’t doing well. That won’t pull the country into another recession in 2015, Rector said, but it could dampen growth in the U.S. and Maine.

Looking beyond 2015, electricity prices and demographics need to be addressed, Rector said. That means pursuing more natural gas for Maine and putting more people who are already here to work while attracting others.

“If Maine does not do something to attract new workers to the state and better utilize the people we have here who are perhaps underemployed, we’re really going to be facing a serious workforce shortage and that’s going to lead to some pretty serious economic growth limitations,” she said.

It means keeping older workers working longer, re-skilling the chronically unemployed and connecting people on welfare with education or apprenticeships.

“We’re going to need everybody we have,” Rector said. “We want to make sure everybody is working.”

kskelton@sunjournal.com 

Job growth forecast for Maine

Number of jobs in thousands

2014: 607.7

2015: 613.2

2016: 616.9

2017: 619.4

2018: 620

2019: 620.6

Source: Maine Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission

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