On October 12 CNN analyst Harry Enten explained, “Why It’s Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Then Everybody Else.” Harry’s thesis is that the polling average taken since the impeachment circus came to town shows Biden at 29%, Warren 25% and Sanders 15% while no one else has gotten more than 5%. It follows from past history that either Biden, Sanders or Warren will be the Democratic party’s nominee.

I have no quarrel with the CNN analysis, except that it does not dig deep enough. Certainly he goes deeply enough into past history to show that there has been only one example of someone polling at 15% in this stage winning the primary. That exception was George McGovern in 1972. But this past history does not include any contest that pitted the far-far left against the establishment.

Good Ol’ Joe Biden is the “moderate” candidate according to the experts consensus. As senator from moderate Delaware for a generation, and Obama’s vice president his moderate credentials are solid enough to allow him a nudge-nudge to the left without being called a socialist. The statistic that Harry Enten neglects is the consistent polling majority held by the two far-far-left candidates. At this time Biden’s 27.8% national average makes him the leader, but Warren’s 26% and Sanders’ 15.2% give the far-fars 41.2%, big lead over Biden’s 27.8%.

The first major confrontation comes in Iowa, where Warren (23.0%) and Sanders (12%) with 45% collectively are way ahead of Biden’s 20.3%. Move on to New Hampshire and we find Warren’s 26% ahead of Biden’s 24.5%. Combine Warren’s share with Sanders’ 11.5% and we see the far-far-left gathering a 37.5% following.

Recent trends have Warren gaining the advantage in the far-far-left vote. At some point, and it may be coming fast, the far-far-left Democrats will start to figure that their primary allegiance is ideological, not personal. This means they rally around the one they expect to win.

Bernie shows that he sees this danger when he told ABC News Chief White House Correspondent Jonathan Karl that “Elizabeth…has said that she is a capitalist through her bones. I’m not…And the reason I am not is because I will not tolerate for one second the kind of greed and corruption and income and wealth inequality and so much suffering that is going on in this country today, which is unnecessary.”

Read that statement pedantically and you must conclude that Sen. Sanders is accusing Sen. Warren of being willing to tolerating greed and corruption and income and wealth inequality, and lots of suffering.

It just sounds that way. But Bernie speaks of being friends with Warren for 25 years. More, he thinks she has been a very, very good senator.” The fact remains that he is the only candidate “who’s going to say to the corporate elite: Enough, enough with your greed and with your corruption….We need real change in this country.”

So far it has been difficult to see where these two power-hungry loons differ pragmatically. They both want to tax the rich in order to enlarge government. They both want to bury the suffering middle classes in blizzards of benefits and free stuff. They both want to take control of the weather, of the economy and of social relations.

Nearly as I can tell, Bernie’s message is that he’s a real socialist. He took his bride to the Soviet Union for their honey moon. He has praised Castro’s Cuba and Hugo Chavez’s Venezuela. These are important symbols of his loathing for capitalist America and his vision of a totally transformed America. Betsy can’t make the same claim. She’s a “capitalist to the bone.”

Examine the rest of the field and we find Buttigieg leading the field with a national average of 5% and leads in local polls but and no visible following among African-Americans. No Democrat has a chance at victory without a solid chunk of the vote.

John Frary of Farmington, the GOP candidate for U.S. Congress in 2008, is a retired history professor, an emeritus Board Member of Maine Taxpayers United, a Maine Citizen’s Coalition Board member, and publisher of FraryHomeCompanion.com. He can be reached at jfrary8070@aol.com

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