On August 20 the Stancioffs reminded Citizen readers of the importance of statistics. Hard numbers, percentages, comparisons; properly used and clearly understood. Statistics can help us understand our schools. Fortunately, SAD 44 has a “Public Information Program” that declares: “Public support for the schools depends upon informed public opinion.” (Policy adopted August 20, 2004.) The District’s website has useful numbers; more of them, more easily found, would help.

When Maine’s Department of Education comparatively assesses school and student performance, it necessarily deals in percentages. How many students are excelling in English, or chronically absent, must be expressed as percentages of total students in a class, school, or district to make comparisons with other schools, or state standards, useful. This column has looked at MDOE performance indicators before: we aren’t doing very well (but similar districts have similar records).

“Maine Student Performance on State Assessments” offers another set of percentages. Performance is divided into three subjects, and two levels: “below or well below state expectations” and “at or above state expectations”. At Telstar Middle School the better category includes 60.5% (English), 40.1% (Math), 62.7% (Science). At Telstar High the good numbers are 52.8%, 13.9%, and 47.2%. What happens as students progress through the system?

For one thing, students disappear. Doing some simple division of our schools’ 2018-19 stats (most recent available), the average year at Telstar Middle has 55 students, Telstar High 44 (a loss of 20%). Weaker programs, loss of good students, something else? An enrolment breakdown by year could suggest answers. (Exactly when do the numbers go down?)

Some longitudinal stats would help us plan. What were enrolment numbers five or ten years ago? Has performance sagged with numbers as the district loses students? What may be next?

Maine has the oldest population in the nation. Sales and new builds in Bethel appear to be bringing in retirees and second or third home owners. Numbers of high school graduates in New England have declined steadily since 2011. (See “Fighting for Survival”, Yankee magazine, Sept/Oct, 2020.) At what point does a shrinking school cease to be viable? Numbers of teachers, of classrooms, of computers, of busses, and the money to pay for them, all depend on enrolments, statistically measured.

David R Jones is no statistician, but he can handle common sense numbers.