Shah indicates cautious optimism as ‘the bullet train that is omicron is slowing down’

Most metrics indicate that the spread of COVID-19 in Maine is waning but it’s not time to put the pandemic in the rearview mirror just yet, the state’s top public health official said Wednesday.

Hospitalizations, the PCR test positivity rate and wastewater surveillance testing all indicated a decreasing prevalence of the coronavirus in Maine communities.

“The trends are encouraging and the trends are favorable,” Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Nirav Shah said at a media briefing Wednesday.

“What we are looking for now is continued stability: more stability in terms of decreasing hospitalization rates, more stability in terms of lower positivity rates, more stability in terms of falling rates of COVID,” he said.

As of Wednesday, 249 individuals were hospitalized with COVID, a nearly 20% decrease from seven days prior. The last time hospitalizations were this low was November 2021, before the omicron-driven surge took hold in the state.

The number of COVID inpatients at Lewiston’s two hospitals, Central Maine Medical Center and St. Mary’s Regional Medical Center, also decreased this week compared to last. Providers at CMMC were caring for an average of 13 patients per day over the week ending Tuesday, according to hospital data, a 35% decrease from the week prior.

There were three patients hospitalized with COVID at St. Mary’s on Wednesday and the seven-day moving average was eight patients per day. It was a dramatic decrease from last Wednesday, when there were 13 patients on the COVID floor and providers there were caring for an average of 16 patients per day over the previous seven days.

According to the Maine CDC’s weekly report on wastewater surveillance testing, COVID’s spread in the Lewiston-Auburn area has decreased significantly from the first sample taken Jan. 31, to the most recent sample taken Feb. 10.

These are all promising signs, Shah said, but with most schools in Maine taking February vacation next week, it’s important to remain vigilant.

“In short, the bullet train that is omicron is slowing down — and that’s a good thing. But we don’t let off the brakes while the train is still moving,” he said.

COVID infections tend to surge after a school vacation as a result of transmission in the community at large.

The Maine CDC will be watching for spikes in cases following students’ return in a couple of weeks, Shah said. But more than half of school-age kids in Maine are fully vaccinated and that, coupled with the some 35,000 students who have gotten COVID so far this school year, adds a layer of immunity and lowers the risk of school-based transmission.

If metrics continue on their downward trend, Shah said the agency is prepared to discuss changing its recommendation for universal masking in schools to an optional one, in consultation with school superintendents.

“The risk of transmission in schools is tied to the overall level of COVID in the community. As COVID rates in the community come down, the risk of transmission in schools comes down and thus, the need for masking goes down,” Shah said.

“Basically, when it stops raining, you don’t need your umbrella,” he said.

Still, time will tell if Maine has reached that point.

“Where we are right now is favorable; it’s encouraging. We want to just see those trends continue,” Shah said.