PATRIOTS THIS WEEK

Patriots (1-2) at Packers (2-1), 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Spread: Packers by 9 1/2

Outlook: Bill Belichick insisted that Mac Jones is “day-to-day,” in fact Jones’ ankle sprain will shelve him several weeks, so enter Brian Hoyer, who it feels like has been New England’s backup QB since 1978. Green Bay is great at home and the Patriots kill themselves with turnovers. Oh and did I mention it’s Aaron Rodgers vs. Brian Hoyer?

Prediction: Packers, 27-13

GAME OF THE WEEK

Chiefs (2-1) at Buccaneers (2-1), 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

Spread: Even.

Outlook: You can’t go wrong with Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady in a pick-’em game and prime-time rematch of two Super Bowls ago. A game of contrasts presents itself. Mahomes’ high-octane offense vs. Tampa’s excellent defense. And KC’s beatable D vs. a Bucs offense beset by receiver injuries – though getting healthier. Bottom line: the Bucs’ defense is great. Mahomes will be better.

Prediction: Chiefs, 27-23

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Bills (2-1) at Ravens (2-1), 1 p.m. (CBS)

Spread: Bills by 3.

Outlook: Baltimore has won five straight at home vs. the Bills, and are 15-3-1 against the spread in the past 19 as a home dog. The Bills are beset by injuries, especially on D. Miami took advantage last week, and so will Lamar Jackson and the NFL’s highest-scoring offense Sunday. Jackson didn’t get the extended contract he wanted during the offseason, and is playing like a man bent to get his money. And maybe another MVP trophy.

Prediction: Ravens, 34-31

OTHER GAMES

Vikings (2-1, -2 1/2) over Saints (1-2), 23-18, in London: The first of four games in London, with two others in Munich and Mexico City, has the Saints on an 18-1 tear in games played in October. Vikes RB Dalvin Cook (shoulder) is iffy, but I still fancy Kirk Cousins over the sputtering offense of pick-prone Jameis Winston.

Browns (2-1, -1) over @Falcons (1-2), 27-24: I don’t trust either team. Cleveland will be missing pass-rusher Myles Garrett (car wreck), but the Falcons counter with home-field disadvantage after losing nine of past 10 in Atlanta. Look for RB Nick Chubb to have a fantasy-tastic day.

@Cowboys (2-1, -3) over Commanders (1-2), 23-16: Not to jinx it, but Cooper Rush has fared capably in place of Dak Prescott, and should see Dallas to its 10th win in 13 meetings with their NFC East rivals with Zeke Elliott and Tony Pollard going strong against a bad run-defense.

@Lions (1-2, -4) over Seahawks (1-2), 31-28: Detroit has to be one of my least-picked-to-win teams in 32 years of doing this and here they are a favorite for the first time since November 2020. Seattle stinks, but I’m still hedging on the Seahawks with points. Because it’s Detroit!

Titans (1-2, +3 1/2) over @Colts (1-1-1), 20-17: Tennessee has beaten Indy three straight and four of past five, and the visiting team is on a 5-2 run in this rivalry. Matt Ryan has been sacked 10 times over two games, so Ryan Tannehill won’t need a ton of points for the upset.

@Giants (2-1, -3) over Bears (2-1), 19-17: How are these teams both 2-1 with such bad offenses? Justin Fields is getting booed by Bears fans. Now the Giants are minus top WR Sterling Shepherd. I still lean Giants at home, but the Bears with points.

@Eagles (3-0, -6 1/2) over Jaguars (2-1), 30-20: Jags Coach Doug Pederson is coming off a big win with a chance to deal a first loss to his former team in Philly. Two hot QBs in Trevor Lawrence and Jalen Hurts promise sparks, but the contender and the pretender shall reveal themselves.

@Steelers (1-2, -3) over Jets (1-2), 23-13: The Steelers’ D misses T.J. Watt but still packs enough to bother a rusty Zach Wilson, especially if S Minkah Fitzpatrick (concussion) is able to play as hoped.

Chargers (1-2, -5) over @Texans (0-2-1), 27-16: A favorable matchup for Justin Herbert, whose ribs should be better, to shake off that nasty home loss to the Jags. L.A.’s issues are on defense, but Houston doesn’t offer a lot of offensive pop.

@Panthers (1-2, -1 1/2) over Cardinals (1-2), 26-23: I do like RB Christian McCaffrey (if he plays) and the Panthers D. And the Cardinals have a bad defense and not many weapons around Kyler Murray.

@Raiders (0-3, -2 1/2) over Broncos (2-1), 24-20: The league’s last remaining 0-3 team will get off the schneid here, especially if it starts throwing to Davante Adams. Denver QB Russell Wilson has been a disappointment and doesn’t have the offense humming enough to keep up.

Rams (2-1, +1 1/2) over @49ers (1-2), 23-21: The Rams will pressure Jimmy Garoppolo and force mistakes, especially with the 49ers missing stellar LT Trent Williams to an ankle sprain. Mathew Stafford also can be error-prone, so chances are a turnover may be the difference here.

Last week: 10-6 overall, 8-8 vs. spread.

Season: 24-23-1, 21-27