4 min read

Bob Neal

On one hand, the resolution Tuesday in the Maine House of Representatives to support U.S. aid to Ukraine was an issue pretty much out of the hands of state government.

It was a feel-good resolution. Then, there’s the other hand.

On the other hand, the resolution shows those in whose hands (pun intended) lies the fate of aid to Ukraine that this tiny part of the country wants to support freedom and resist aggression.

The other hand won the day, 87-54, but not until debate got kinda nasty. Two days later, the Senate passed the resolution, 27-4, with far less debate and only Eric Brakey, R-Androscoggin, speaking against it. Brakey called the Russian invasion a “border dispute.”

This is twice in a still-early session the Republicans have put ideology ahead of accomplishment. The first was blocking the $450 heat-assistance checks that eventually even they backed.

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Anyone who has been around more than a couple of decades has seen this play out several times. Those of us who have been around lots of decades have seen it play out maybe a dozen times. Those few of us who have formally studied foreign and defense policy — that’s me, among others — have probably argued both sides more than once.

It’s the old domino theory. That is, “If we don’t stop them now, they’ll just continue to gobble up territory, so we’d better stop them now.”

Historical domino case No. 1. Neville Chamberlain, U.K. prime minister in 1938, said Britons could sleep at night after he allowed Hitler to take the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia. Winston Churchill, then a Conservative back-bencher, told Chamberlain: “You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor, and you will have war.”

We all know who was right.

Domino case No. 2. Five years after the war Chamberlain enabled, North Korea invaded South Korea. President Truman, citing the domino theory, beefed up American forces in Korea. After three years and 36,516 American deaths, the shooting ended. Little was gained directly, but halting the invasion may have saved South Korea and staved off more Communist land grabs.

Domino case No. 3. President Eisenhower sent military “advisers” to Vietnam in 1954 shortly after the fall of Dien Bien Phu to the Viet Minh. President Kennedy stepped up American aid. Both cited the domino theory. “If we don’t stop them now …”

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In 1964, President Johnson phonied up a crisis and pushed through Congress the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, which gave him the power to do whatever he saw as needed to retaliate.

Domino theory again. And this time it was half wrong and half right.

The wrong part first. If the domino theory had held, Communists would have followed the takeover of South Vietnam by trying to take Laos, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand. After Vietnam fell, Communists did rule Laos and Cambodia. Still rule Laos, but not Cambodia.

The larger dominoes (Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand) didn’t fall.

The right part now. If you begin with Franklin Delano Roosevelt and draw a line of presidential power to now, the line would arc up steadily until 1964, then jump sharply. The big domino that fell wasn’t countries in Southeast Asia. It was the congressional check on presidential power.

Here we should note that a congressional resolution isn’t the same as a resolution in Maine’s Legislature. A federal resolution can have the force of law. A state resolution is sometimes a “sentiment.” Our Legislature often adopts sentiments, such as noting a town library anniversary.

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To the crux of the Ukraine resolution. Though I don’t believe the domino theory applied in Vietnam, I believe it does in Ukraine.

We had no evidence that Ho Chi Minh wanted to subdue, say, Thailand. But we have evidence that Vladimir Putin wants to cast the Russian net wider. In April 2005, NBC reported, Putin said the collapse of the Soviet Empire “was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.”

And he has followed up with action. In 2008, he annexed South Ossetia, part of the country of Georgia. In 2014, Putin annexed the Crimea, a Ukrainian island in the Black Sea.

It seems clear Putin wants to recreate the Soviet Empire. Belarus is under his wing. Finland and Estonia, nations allied to some extent with the West, like Ukraine, fear they’re next.

George W. Bush did nothing when Putin took South Ossetia. Barack Obama did nothing when Putin took Crimea. President Biden may have read the same history and political science Winston Churchill read. Putin, in word and deed, has shown he wants to topple more dominoes.

Instead of mouthing the Russian line as if they were Fox “News” commentators, Maine Republicans, not to mention national Republicans, ought to be supporting the defense of Ukraine.

Even if it’s only by passing a sentiment of the Legislature.

When Bob Neal’s wife died, Maine’s Legislature adopted a sentiment of sorrow and recognition for her service as deputy town clerk and collector. He is, on her behalf, deeply honored. Neal can be reached at [email protected].

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