Lee has a narrow window for an escape out to sea. A track right along the coast is just as possible as an out to sea track. WGME graphic
Hurricane Lee has intensified at a rate rivaling the strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic and is now a category 5 hurricane as of Friday morning.
This powerful hurricane will remain at extreme strength in the Caribbean for the next few days before a turn to the north next week. Maine will come into play late next week and two impacts from Lee are possible.
Lee has winds of 165 mph with gusts to 200 mph as of 5 a.m. Friday. This makes Lee one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes ever recorded. Lee is expected to become even stronger; it may break records for its intensity this weekend.
On the forecast track, Lee will continue to the west through early next week, north of Puerto Rico and the Antilles. No direct impacts expected in the Caribbean.
Lee will then slow down early next week and make a turn to the north somewhere north of the Bahamas. How much it slows down, and where it makes that turn to the north will have big implications for New England impacts.
There are two big players with Lee’s track next week: Player 1 is a cold front that will be moving into New England. Player 2 is a high-pressure area over the Atlantic. Lee will squeeze through the gap between this front and the high pressure, leaving options limited for an escape out to sea.
Option 1
This is a best-case scenario for Maine. In this scenario, the high pressure to our east is weaker, and the front moving into New England is strong. The front will push Lee out to sea in this situation, and the weaker high pressure would not “block” Lee from being pushed out to see.
In this scenario, impacts in Maine would be limited to big waves, strong currents, and maybe some coastal flooding.
Option 2
In this scenario, the high pressure to our east is much stronger, forcing Lee to the west closer to the New England coast. The front is also weaker in this scenario and doesn’t do a good job of pushing Lee offshore. In this case, Lee would track either right along the coast of New England or potentially even making a landfall in Maine or elsewhere in the region.
Regardless of a landfall, this scenario would have major hurricane impacts in parts of the state with storm surge, flooding rain, strong winds, power outages, and widespread damage.
As of Friday morning, both options are equally likely late next week or next weekend. Over this weekend and into early next week, the forecast will come into better focus. Stay tuned for changes, and let’s hope for an offshore track.
As a side note, a hurricane impact in New England would be devastating. The last hurricane landfall was 32 years ago in 1991, and the last major hurricane was 69 years ago in 1954. Hopefully we don’t change any of these statistics next week.
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