Bills (6-5) at Eagles (9-1), 4:25 p.m., CBS

Spread: Eagles by 3 1/2

Outlook: The Eagles won’t take lightly the desperate Bills, who in turn obviously cannot look past Philadelphia. Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen lead two big offenses and each team has a big defense. If Allen can avoid any turnovers (a big if for him), the Bills will have an upset shot. Otherwise, I lean on Philly being 4-0 at home and the Bills being only 1-3 on the road, but still hunch the dogs eke out a cover.

Prediction: Eagles, 27-24



Patriots (2-8) at Giants (3-8), 1 p.m. FOX

Spread: Patriots by 3

Outlook: Back when he was surrounded by talent including Tom Brady, Bill Belichick enjoyed a smarter-than-everybody-else mystique. At 2-8 and deciding between Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe, he does not. So you no longer assume Belichick will make magic of a bye week. Or that his track record vs. rookie QBs (such as Tommy DeVito) will automatically repeat. What beat Washington last week – DeVito very solid, and a defense that forced six turnovers – can continue Belichick’s woes.

Prediction: Giants, 17-16


@Falcons (4-6, -1) over Saints (5-5), 23-20: This battle for first in the lousy NFC South finds both teams coming off bye weeks with QB issues. Derek Carr (shoulder, concussion) will have a sore wing even if he’s cleared to play, while Desmond Ridder gets the ball back due to Taylor Heinicke’s hamstring injury. The Saints have won five straight trips to Atlanta, but I see a big Falcons ground game ending that home skid.


Steelers (6-4, -1) over @Bengals (5-5), 16-13: Joe Burrow is out for the rest of the year with a wrist injury and it’s a steep drop to Jake Browning in his first NFL start. Pittsburgh firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada could provide the jolt Kenny Pickett needs, but I pin this pick on the Steelers’ defense vs. a raw QB, especially with safety Minkah Fitzpatrick expected back.

@Titans (3-7, -3 1/2) over Panthers (1-9), 20-16: Rookie QBs Bryce Young and Will Levis are both struggling to create much scoring. But all of Tennessee’s wins have come at home and Carolina is 0-5 on the road, so make this one a venue pick.

@Colts (5-5, -2 1/2) over Buccaneers (4-6), 24-20: Two solid run defenses could turn this into Baker Mayfield vs. Gardner Minshew, a close call in a tossup game for me. Indy is on a ridiculous 1-9 skid at home, so I’m playing law of averages here for a fan-pleasing Colts win coming off a bye.

Jaguars (7-3, -2) over @Texans (6-4), 27-24: Houston has owned Jacksonville to the tune of a 10-1 series run, including a 37-17 rout in September. And Trevor Lawrence is 1-4 with seven INTs vs. Houston. Seems the Texans should be favored, frankly. But the Jags arrive on a 6-1 roll, and a 7-1 streak on the road. Big day by Lawrence ends the series trend.

@Broncos (5-5, -2 1/2) over Browns (7-3), 19-16: Quality matchup. Cleveland has won four straight, all close, thanks to defense. Denver also has won four in a row – thanks largely to its defense. Denver has allowed only 17.4 points on average the past five games and should have the better of the Browns’ backup QB.

Rams (4-6, -0 1/2) over @Cardinals (2-9), 24-16: All but pick-’em with L.A. favored by a half point. Rams on a dominant 12-2 series run vs. Arizona, including a 26-9 win last month. The Rams have the better defense to lean on, especially with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua both iffy to play.


Chiefs (7-3, -9) over @Raiders (5-6), 24-17: K.C. will shake off its loss to Philly. Chiefs are on a 9-1 roll in this division rivalry and have won five straight away games in the series. But is the betting number too big? Vegas is 4-1 at home and was good enough to limit the Dolphins’ mighty offense to a 20-13 win last week.

Ravens (8-3, -3 1/2) over @Chargers (4-6), 31-17: Baltimore will miss injured TE Mark Andrews, but QB Lamar Jackson says his ankle is fine. The Chargers will be without Joey Bosa. The Ravens have topped 30 points in five straight games and that should continue.

@Vikings (6-5, -3 1/2) over Bears (3-8), 23-20: The Chicago team that nearly stunned Detroit last week is capable of an upset here. But Minnesota is on a 5-1 run despite losing Kirk Cousins and has won five in a row vs. Chicago, which is 1-9 in last 10 road games. Still lean Bear-ward with the points.

Last week: 10-4 overall; 8-6 vs. spread

Season: 98-66; 75-83-6 vs. spread

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