A report commissioned by Auburn officials says the city needs at least 1,300 more homes by 2030 to address historic under-production and future housing demand.

The housing study by HR&A Advisors, the same firm that completed a study that formed the state’s housing goals in 2023, said the city’s current production pace puts Auburn on track for 720 homes over the next five years, and Auburn needs more diverse housing options to suit changing demographics.

During a presentation to city councilors last week, Phil Kash, the lead for HR&A’s housing practice, said the Auburn-specific study used the state’s production goals as a baseline, landing on a goal of increasing Auburn’s housing stock by 11%.

He said in total, Androscoggin County needs between 6,000 and 6,500 more homes to sustain the current demand and workforce needs, and that while there are many factors cities can’t control — like construction costs — councilors should use the data to develop local regulations.

“It’s not like the county would cease to exist if it didn’t build 6,000 homes, but it hurts your economy and your employers, and makes it harder for people to move there,” he said. “All the housing stress you’re feeling right now, it will be exacerbated.”

According to Mayor Jeff Harmon, the study will be an important piece of the city’s effort to update its Comprehensive Plan, and “will form the basis for identifying housing goals, not just by number of units but by housing type and affordability.”

The study also makes clear that Auburn is not alone in its housing needs. Cash said every county in the United States has a housing deficit, which has made housing unaffordable for many.

In 2023, HR&A worked with Gov. Janet Mills’ Office of Policy Innovation and the Future to develop a study to understand housing needs statewide, which found that Maine needs 76,400 to 84,300 new homes by 2030 to maintain its economic growth.

The study breaks down the county’s needs, stating Lewiston’s share should be between 1,950 and 2,100 units. As of late June, Lewiston had more than 1,300 housing units in the development pipeline. While the number of units permitted in Auburn has slowed since a peak in 2023, there are 132 units permitted to be built, with another 358 approved by the Planning Board.

Kash said a 10% increase in the housing stock “is not radically redeveloping the city.”

“We’re talking about a moderate increase in the number of homes,” he said.

‘COST-BURDENED’

Many of the pressures facing Auburn’s market are being seen in communities across Maine: The gap between median household income and median home price has continued to grow, and there is a shortage of affordable rental units.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, both Auburn and Lewiston have seen more housing pressure as prices have soared across southern Maine, forcing people to look northward.

That has caused housing prices to balloon for locals, but appear affordable to those looking from southern Maine or out of state.

According to the most recent report from the Maine Association of Realtors, the median home sales price in Androscoggin County is $350,000. However, the HR&A study said the modest income of Auburn households highlights the need for “lower-cost” options: homes between $200,000 and $250,000.

It also states the city should continue to pursue a variety of housing options like smaller homes, accessory dwelling units, and family-size rentals.

The report says $280,000 is the price considered “affordable” to households earning the median income, and only 5.6% of recent homes sold were considered affordable for the average renter. There’s also a shortage of affordable rental units, with 79% of low-income rental households considered “cost-burdened.”

In 2023, the median rent in Auburn was $983, but according to the study, two common jobs in Auburn — home health aides and fast-food workers — do not earn enough to afford it.

Anna Gallicchio, a consultant from HR&A, said there’s a mismatch between the size of households and the current housing stock, pointing to a need for more one- and two-bedroom homes: 70% of the city’s homes are one- to two-person households, but only 20% of the housing stock is studio or one-bedroom units.

She said there’s been a recent increase in the young adult and senior populations, but “they don’t always have the type of housing they’d want available.”

Following the presentation, Councilor Belinda Gerry said the report’s data “makes my heart sink because of the unattainable housing that many can’t afford.”

“Kids who grew up here and don’t have big paying jobs can’t afford to stay,” she said. “I’m afraid in 10 years all we’ll have is more implants, and we won’t have the historic memory and people here who have grown up here.”

‘OPPORTUNITIES FOR ALL’

Since 2018, Auburn has added more than 600 units, but according to the report, housing production has declined overall. The city’s current pace of development would leave Auburn 580 homes short of the goal.

The annual rate of new construction has slowed over the past 25 years, from 76 homes annually in the 2000s to 40 homes annually in the 2010s. There were 30 homes built and occupied in 2024.

While the number of permitted homes increased significantly in 2022 and 2023, it has since declined. So far in 2025, only 11 one- or two-family dwellings have been permitted. The report said part of it is interest rates, construction costs and other factors out of Auburn’s control, but the city can control zoning, the cost of permitting and other local regulations.

City officials recently had a lengthy debate over a proposal to raise building permit fees, but the amended fees are still far below other area cities.

HR&A suggests the city “get deeper on zoning and density” and what it can do from a planning perspective, which in the past has been controversial given Auburn’s mix of urban, suburban and rural areas and a reluctance from residents to welcome change.

While Harmon campaigned on changing his predecessor’s aggressive approach to development, he said this week that his goal has always been to create “additional housing opportunities for all,” but in a way that garners community support.

“The policy of ignoring senior housing, middle-income housing, and low-income housing, and only focusing on market rate housing, won’t meet the needs of most of our residents,” he said. “We need to do this in a way that has broad-based community support.”

However, for Auburn and much of the state, obtaining broad support for new housing has been difficult.

‘URGENCY’

Harmon said the Comprehensive Plan process, which includes “robust public engagement,” will help Auburn to “align our growth and housing development patterns to our future needs.”

“As we develop these plans we need to avoid detrimental sprawl and to maintain a balance between developed land and open space that our residents desire,” he said.

Former Mayor Jason Levesque, who ushered in ambitious housing goals and controversial zoning changes to accomplish them, believes that the current cautious approach won’t get Auburn to where the report says it needs to be.

In 2023, city officials believed they were on track to reach a goal set in 2021 of adding 2,000 new units by 2025.

However, that estimate included a proposed 1,100-unit development off Gracelawn Road that was scrapped after a lengthy public battle over water quality and development, with Harmon emerging as a leading voice.

“It’s unfortunate that the council, (Comprehensive Plan) Committee, and Planning Board don’t understand the urgency nor the time it takes for development to happen,” he said. “If they wait for the new (Comprehensive Plan) to be finished there is no mathematical way to achieve this goal or even come close.”

Asked about what the city plans to do ahead of the new Comprehensive Plan, which isn’t slated to be complete until next year, Harmon said Auburn is working with several developers on development or redevelopment opportunities, and “while we are hesitant to make significant zoning changes until the completion of the (Comprehensive Plan), we are continually looking at regulations to ensure they aren’t an unnecessary impediment to development.”

Harmon said Auburn has set records for the highest number of building permits in each of the last two years, and is reviewing city parcels to identify what could be made available for housing development.

He said the city recently authorized making a 16-acre parcel on Eastman Lane available for development for “low- to moderate-income, first-time home ownership.”

“Opportunities such as this will make housing available to everyday working people that are priced out of market rate housing,” he said.

Harmon said the city is also pursuing outside sources of funding to extend infrastructure to support housing development, and reviewing zoning language to conform with state legislation aimed at encouraging housing.

Right now, he said, material and labor costs are the greatest impediment to development and in most instances the financing only works for market-rate housing. Projects with a commercial space component can also be difficult.

Construction on 186 Main St., where there will be 18 market-rate apartments on the top floors and commercial space on the ground floor, is nearing completion, but the developers are still working to nail down an anchor tenant after Mason’s Brewing backed out of the project in 2024.

‘A NICE PLACE TO LIVE’

In the coming days, the city will roll out an online portal where residents can review the data behind the study, which was funded by American Rescue Plan Act funds.

Councilor Rick Whiting, who for years directed the Auburn Housing Authority, said his top takeaway from the study is Auburn needs to pursue a more diverse mix of housing options.

He also believes that while the affordability gap is growing in Auburn, it’s still not as bad as other areas and states, which is contributing to continued demand.

Kash said that while Auburn has an affordable housing deficit, it’s “significantly better than most growing markets.”

“Home prices are high for the median income but low for the quality of housing and amenities you can get relative to other parts of Maine and definitely the rest of the country,” he said, adding that while remote work is declining and could impact demand, Auburn is an attractive place to live.

“I still think you’ll see market pressure in the coming years,” he said. “It’s a good deal — a nice place to live for not too much.”