In the old days, long before any of you, dear readers, were born, there was a saying: “As goes Maine, so goes America.” Maine was regarded as a reliable political bellwether for the nation as a whole, and it wasn’t just based on polling, either.

You see, the country didn’t always have a standardized national election day, just as today we don’t have universal national standards about who can vote and how. States didn’t have to hold their general elections on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, and Maine was one of the ones that held its local elections early, in September.

So actual election results could be used, and were, as a measurement of the national mood. This conventional wisdom lasted until 1936, when Maine was one of two states — along with Vermont — that did not vote for Franklin Delano Roosevelt. After that, James Farley, FDR’s campaign manager, quipped that, “As goes Maine, so goes Vermont,” and that tradition was dead forever.

Or was it?

This year, Maine will regain its bellwether status, serving once again as an indicator of the national mood. Our elections are reflective of several national trends played out on our own political stage. First, the primary between Janet Mills and newcomer Graham Platner is indicative of the schism between progressive Democrats and the centrist wing — and in a much more consequential way than the New York City mayoral election. This race could well determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate and, more broadly, whether Democrats are still willing to sacrifice progressive ideals in the name of electability.

Apart from the ideological rift, that contest will also test how much Democrats are willing to ignore a candidate’s flaws if he embraces the proper ideology. It wasn’t too long ago that a candidate with Platner’s controversial history would have been, rightly, laughed off the political stage. These days, however, those guardrails — as well as the demand that candidates for higher office actually know anything about governing — have been increasingly abandoned by both parties. Is that an aberration, or the beginning of a disturbing new trend? Time will tell, but Maine will be on the leading edge of that phenomenon.

Another question is, more broadly, whether the state and the country will continue to revert to their natural political tendencies. Nationwide we see fewer members of Congress representing districts or states won by the other party in the presidential election. Maine is the only state won by a Democrat in the presidential election represented by a Republican in the U.S. Senate and the 2nd Congressional District is one of just seven districts carried by President Trump that is represented by a Democrat.

Will the 2nd District revert to its natural political leanings by sending former Gov. Paul LePage to Washington? If it does, that will show not only that the country — and the state — are becoming more partisan, but that Maine is increasingly divided between rural areas and more urban ones. We see that already in the makeup of the state Legislature; extending it to the congressional delegation would only be an expansion of that trend.

The same can be said of the United States Senate race, regardless of who wins the Democratic primary. Over many decades, Susan Collins has done a good job establishing her own brand outside of the Republican Party, often aggravating both the left and the right by being able to think for herself. That hasn’t changed since Trump got elected; it’s just that her critics on both sides of the ideological divide are now less willing to forgive her transgressions. The question for her — and for other centrist politicians around the country actually interested in governing — is whether those voices are a majority or remain a vocal minority. 

The top-of-the-ticket races will, as always, filter down to lower-level races as well, including for the state Legislature. The question there, however, is whether either party has candidates who can win in the other party’s territory. If they don’t, it may appear as if a national Democratic wave skips over the Maine Legislature, leaving it closely divided, but it’s really more reflective of that growing urban-rural divide.

Regardless of the outcome, what occurs in Maine this year will tell us much about the future of not only the state but the country. Even if Maine doesn’t transform into a swing state, we will, at least, regain our status as a bellwether — for better or for worse.