3 min read

ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) – Early blooms. Less snow to shovel. Unseasonable warm spells.

Signs that winters in the Northeast are losing their bite have been abundant in recent years. Now researchers from the University of New Hampshire have measured just how mild winter is getting.

A study of weather station data from across the Northeast from 1965 through 2005 found temperatures from December through March increased by 2.5 degrees over the four decades. Snowfall totals dropped by an average of 8.8 inches across the region over the same period, and the number of days with at least 1 inch of snow on the ground decreased by 9 days on average.

“Winter is warming greater than any other season,” said Elizabeth Burakowski, who analyzed data from dozens of stations for her master’s thesis in collaboration with Cameron Wake, a professor at UNH’s Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space.

Burakowski, who graduated from UNH in December, found that the biggest snowfall decreases were in December and February. Stations in New England showed the strongest decreases in winter snowfall, about 3 inches a decade.

There were wide disparities in snowfall over the nine-state region, which includes New England, New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Average totals ranged from 13.5 inches in Cape May, N.J. to 137.6 inches in Oswego, N.Y. Some stations on the Great Lakes, where lake-effect storms are common, showed an increase.

The reduction in days with at least an inch of snow on the ground was the most pronounced at stations between 42 and 44 degrees latitude – a band that includes most of Massachusetts, a thick slice of upstate New York and the southern parts of Vermont and New Hampshire.

Burakowski cites two likely causes for the reduction in so-called snow-covered days: higher maximum temperatures and “snow-albedo feedback,” in which less snow cover to begin with allows more warmth to be absorbed by the ground, making it less conducive to snow cover.

The research has yet to appear in a peer-reviewed journal, though meteorologists who have studied long-term climate trends said the observations appear to be in line with other research.

Richard Heim of the National Climatic Data Center looked at trends in snowfall totals nationwide from 1948 to 2006 and found patterns varied regionally and seasonally. For the Northeast in winter, he found totals mostly decreasing along coastal areas, with an increasing trend along the Great Lakes. Art DeGaetano of the Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University said regions around New York state have recorded negative trends in snowfall since 1970.

DeGaetano cautioned that snowfall totals can vary a lot from year to year. Witness last month, when snow totals were well above average for December across much of the Northeast.

Still, the long-term trend in warmer winters has raised concerns.

Ski center operators around the region have noted that winters don’t seem as snowy as they were in the ’60s and ’70s. Parker Riehle, president of the trade association Ski Vermont, said operators have noticed an incremental increase in temperatures over the decades, but he echoed DeGaetano’s point that snow totals have gone up and down.

“We’ve seen some erratic winters in recent years,” Riehle said. “The mood swings of Mother Nature, perhaps, are deeper than they used to be.”

But while ski slopes can fire up snow guns to compensate for lack of flurries, snowmobilers and cross-country skiers have complained about late starts and fewer covered trails in recent years.

Mark Booska of the Hudson Valley Ski Club said the lack of snow during some winters has affected cross-country skiing because people never get in the right frame of mind.

“They look out their window and they’re not thinking skiing,” he said.

Comments are no longer available on this story