David Vail is professor of economics emeritus and former director of environmental
studies at Bowdoin College. He is a member of the Citizens’ Climate Lobby’s
Economics Research Network.

“Water, water everywhere, nor any drop to drink”— S. T. Coleridge’s “The Rime of the Ancient Mariner.”

The Earth’s total stock of water has been essentially unchanged for eons, but according to a recent United Nations report, the supply of water actually available for human use has been so depleted and polluted that we have crossed a threshold into “water bankruptcy.”

The report states: “While not every [river] basin and country is water-bankrupt … critical systems around the world have crossed these thresholds … many societies have not only overspent their annual renewable water “income” from rivers, soils, and snowpack, they have depleted long-term “savings” in aquifers, glaciers, wetlands and other natural reservoirs.”

Maine is a comparatively “wet” place, with 40-plus inches average rainfall, 90% forest cover and thousands of lakes and ponds. But that does not confer immunity to the climatic and other stresses underlying global water bankruptcy.

In recent years, parts of Maine have also experienced severe droughts, dry wells and increased wildfire risk. And we have some experience with conflicts over the control of water, like dam removals and stream withdrawals for bottled water.

Still, the Maine Climate Council’s scientific advisors forecast that the state will receive greater average precipitation in coming decades, albeit with more severe storm events and greater year-
to-year fluctuations.

In the global context, Maine’s water problems are minor. But, as the U.N. report emphasizes, “These systems are interconnected through trade, migration, climate feedbacks and geopolitical dependencies, so the global risk landscape is now fundamentally altered.”

Viewed in a medium-term perspective, the world’s — and America’s — water crisis is likely to bring new challenges and opportunities to Maine. It’s instructive to speculate about these “over the horizon” possibilities.

Worsening water deficits, from a “megadrought” in the U.S. Southwest to Africa’s Sahel, will reinforce the climate advantages that are already attracting in-migrants to the Pine Tree State. Given our fast-aging population and high ratio of dependents to working-age residents, an influx of “water refugees” could enhance the vitality of Maine’s economy and of host communities.

Agriculture and outdoor recreation, legacy sectors that are crucial for Maine’s rural vitality, should also benefit. For example, grass-raised, grain-finished beef and freshwater aquaculture salmon could get a boost.

Likewise, Maine’s four-season lake and mountain tourist destinations should benefit, with summer tourism boosted by cool lake waters and trout streams and winter tourism bolstered by Maine ski resorts’ abundant water for snowmaking and colder temperatures compared to many Northeast competitors.

Maine might capitalize on a competitive advantage in new water-intensive industries like grid scale battery systems, AI data centers and pumped-storage hydroelectricity — if policy makers chose to pursue these problematic options.

And, who knows, water in bulk could itself become a Maine export over the long run, if a rising “scarcity price” induced investment in water pipelines, tanker trucks and tanker rail freight.

“Water bankruptcy” is a tragedy for literally billions of our fellow citizens of the Earth. Water depletion and pollution, combined with human-caused climate change and other ecosystem stresses, ultimately threaten the very future of our species.

It is paradoxical that Maine might benefit from others’ suffering in the coming decades. To my mind, this dilemma underscores our moral obligation to steward Maine’s water resources
sustainably and equitably.