ISLAMABAD, Pakistan – A decision by Pakistan’s Supreme Court on Thursday to allow an exiled former prime minister to return home could derail President Pervez Musharraf’s chances of winning an easy re-election this fall, political analysts and lawyers said.

Musharraf, a key but increasingly controversial ally of the U.S. in its war against Islamic extremists, had publicly laid out plans to seek election to another five-year term in a vote by the parliament in late September or early October, a time when he would have faced little opposition.

But on Thursday, a seven-judge court panel paved the way for the return of Nawaz Sharif, a former premier who was ousted by Musharraf in a 1999 military coup after Sharif’s government tried to fire Musharraf as army chief and refused to allow his plane to land in Pakistan. Sharif and his brother, Shahbaz Sharif, later were forced into exile by Musharraf.

The judges ruled unanimously that the two Sharifs could return home without government interference. That means one of them could try to rally opposition support to compete against Musharraf for the presidency, or at least deny the president enough support to win a vote in parliament.

“Musharraf might well be short on the simple majority to be elected from this sitting parliament,” said Talat Hussain, a political commentator and journalist. “He’s a man of shrinking options.”

The beleaguered president has come under increasing pressure from all sides. While being confronted by Islamic militants and U.S. officials unsatisfied with his efforts to contain the radicals, his botched attempt to oust the country’s chief justice in March mobilized opposition political parties for the first time in years.

With Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry reinstated, the newly emboldened Supreme Court has turned into the biggest challenge so far to Musharraf’s regime, issuing an unprecedented series of decisions against the government.

Musharraf has made it clear he wants to hold on to his two jobs of president and army chief. To expand his support, he reportedly has negotiated a future power-sharing deal with Benazir Bhutto, another one-time rival and exiled former prime minister. And early this month, the day Sharif’s case first came before the Supreme Court, his government warned that he might declare a state of emergency.

But the Supreme Court decision Thursday throws all of Musharraf’s plans into question.

In London, Sharif told reporters he would soon return to Pakistan. He said he would seek office again. If he returns, he could be jailed on old corruption charges that were set aside when he went into exile but were resurrected by the government after the court took up his petition to come home.

But putting him in jail could make him a hero, analysts said.

The court decision also could force Bhutto to reconsider her purported deal with Musharraf, considered to be the most likely way he could hold on to power. Aitzaz Ahsan, a leading member of Bhutto’s party, the Pakistan People’s Party, questioned why the former prime minister would now sign up with the weakened Musharraf.

He also said Bhutto might decide to come home soon if Sharif does.

“I’m sure she’s herself now considering her own flight plan and flight schedule and certainly should be reconsidering this engagement with Pervez Musharraf,” said Ahsan, a lawyer who also helped the country’s chief justice fight his suspension.


In Washington, the Bush administration once again faced questions Thursday about its continuing support for Musharraf as the challenges mount against him.

State Department spokesman Gonzalo Gallegos said Sharif’s case was an issue for the Pakistani legal system, but U.S. officials still wanted “a strengthening of Pakistan’s democratic traditions.”

“We’ve made it clear that we want to see Pakistan succeed as a moderate, modern, democratic country, led by the choice of the Pakistani people,” Gallegos said.

After being ousted by Musharraf, Sharif was imprisoned for several months and sentenced to several life sentences for hijacking, terrorism, corruption and embezzlement, but his sentence was commuted to exile in Saudi Arabia for 10 years.

The Supreme Court based its ruling Thursday on the country’s constitution, which allows freedom of movement of all citizens and the right to leave and return. Chaudhry said the Sharifs “have an inalienable right” as citizens of Pakistan to come home. “Their entry should not be restricted, restrained or hampered in any manner by federal and provincial government agencies,” he said.


Government officials seemed to expect the decision. In court, Attorney General Malik Qayyum admitted that the Sharifs had a constitutional right to return, but questioned whether it was in the court’s interest to make an official decision. “It’s a question of discretion,” said Qayyum, an argument the judges quickly discounted.

Musharraf’s choices seem limited, analysts said. His supporters in parliament have always been fickle; his ruling party was cobbled together by defectors from other parties. If those members of parliament decide that he is in trouble, it is likely they will abandon him. And if that happens, it will be difficult for him to get a simple majority vote in parliament.


The Supreme Court will address several other challenges to Musharraf in the coming weeks: whether he can be both army chief and president, whether he can hold elections under the sitting parliament.

And the country’s powerful army also will be watched closely in the coming months. The military has directly ruled Pakistan for more than half its 60 years and largely pulled the strings when civilians have ruled. Twice in the past, the army has asked military leaders to step down when they lost too much public support.

It is unclear what any regime change would mean for the U.S.-led war on terror.

On Thursday, Sharif told the Associated Press that he had always had a cordial relationship with the U.S. He also said the U.S. must distance itself from Musharraf and support democracy if it wants to win the fight against terrorism.

“America must support Pakistan. It should not equate Pakistan with Musharraf,” Sharif said. “It is being perceived (that) America is supporting one man against 150 million people in Pakistan.”

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(c) 2007, Chicago Tribune.

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Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

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ARCHIVE PHOTOS on MCT Direct (from MCT Photo Service, 202-383-6099): Nawaz Sharif

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