PHILADELPHIA – Millions of schoolchildren along the I-95 corridor from Washington to New York went to sleep last Thursday night with visions of a snow day, or at least a late opening, swirling in their heads.
But well before bedtime, savvy weather watchers knew the sad truth.
At 8 p.m., “TerpEast” had posted it on Easternuswx, the hot chat board for a gathering assortment of weather enthusiasts, from seasoned professionals to so-called snow weenies.
The storm was going to fizzle, wrote Nabeel Keblawi, a Maryland meteorologist who posts daily as “TerpEast.” His technical treatise ranged from the North Atlantic Oscillation to a misplaced high-pressure system, and led to an inescapable conclusion: Here comes another dud in a deadly dull winter.
As shockingly uneventful as winter has been throughout the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast, there has never been a busier one on the Easternuswx site. For snow lovers, the board has been a venue for mass group therapy, akin to sports radio.
In this case, though, the target doesn’t wear a uniform. It’s spoilsport Mother Nature.
If anything, the relentless disappointment of the season is driving more people to the board in a desperate quest for snow on a computer model’s horizon tomorrow, next week, the week after. For Easternuswx, frustration has been a growth industry.
“Every six hours. Something … ANYTHING … a sign … of snow,” a Massachusetts poster named “Weathafellow” pleaded last week. “Not necessarily a blockbuster but a FREAKING INCH!”
“Weathafellow” is one of more than 5,000 posters, according to Marcus Adams, a computer programmer. The board is owned by his Mach Ten Computer Products, a Manchester, Md., computer/network sales and service company.
The board started modestly in late 2002, but in the last 12 months, he said, it has logged about 1.2 million posts.
In a stunning departure from an online trend, the board carries no advertising and is entirely supported by donations from its members. Typically, they are semi-serious hobbyists, hailing from throughout the United States and even Europe.
The majority of the posters, though, live in the Mid-Atlantic region.
Why? Greg Ralls (“greg ralls” on the board) figures that just enough happens here to keep people coming back.
“I think it is because we’re in the biggest tease zone,” said Ralls, 38. “Every winter, this or that big one is one week away.”
About 150 of the posters are professional meteorologists, such as Keblawi, who works for NASA at the University of Maryland. Wes Junker (“usedtobe”) is a respected retired government meteorologist. And Tony Gigi (“rainshadow”) is a lead forecaster at the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly, N.J.
Gigi’s colleague Mike Gorse (“MGorse”) frequently consults the board, particularly for the longer-range discussions by Junker and others.
“It’s like another tool,” Gorse said.
The quality of the posts varies more than the weather. Some are erudite, such as the long-term pattern analyses by Don Sutherland (“Don Sutherland1”), who lives in the New York area and is perhaps the most highly regarded non-meteorologist on the site.
Others are more than down to earth. “Someone ought to kill that skunky rodent,” wrote “Big Mike” after Punxsutawney Phil disappointed winter fans by not seeing his shadow on Friday.
The ones known affectionately as “weenie” postings – people wanting to know how much snow they will be getting in their backyards – are simply annoying.
During storms, naturally, the board becomes busier than a grocery store bread aisle. But the heaviest traffic arrives with a good storm threat. Because what drives the board as much as anything is a simple principle: What might happen is almost always more interesting than what is happening.
Fresh computer models roll out new guidance every six hours, and during winter, odds are that at least one of them will hint of that cosmic snowstorm that will shut down the East Coast.
With so many virtual blizzards out there, the speculation business has never been so robust.
“Like the rest of you, I am sick,” “Weathafellow” complained during another frustrating session on his computer. “I wish it were the old days of watching TWC (the Weather Channel), looking at radar … and hoping.”
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Weather discussion board: http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/lofiversion/index.php/f15.html
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(c) 2007, The Philadelphia Inquirer.
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Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.
AP-NY-02-07-07 0614EST
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