Special and off-year elections can sometimes forecast the future. That was the case in 2009, when Republican Chris Christie defeated a Democratic incumbent governor in the heavily Democratic state of New Jersey. A year later, Republicans swept to victory in a large number of state houses (including Maine’s) and took back the U.S. House of Representatives, putting a large dent in President Obama’s legislative agenda.

So there was plenty of attention devoted to Tuesday’s special election in Senate District 19, where Majority Leader Seth Goodall had resigned to become head of the New England Small Business Administration,

Goodall, a Democrat, had narrowly defeated one-term Sen. Paula Benoit, a Republican, in 2008, so Benoit’s attempt to regain the seat five years later was highly plausible, particularly after the anticipated candidate for the Democrats, House Majority Leader Seth Berry, decided not to run.

Sagadahoc County has swung between Rs and Ds often over the years, and Democrats have only a slight edge in registration, so the unusual August election was a fair test of what’s working, politically, and what’s not.

That Eloise Vitelli, the Democrat, was able to defeat Benoit, by about 300 votes and with 50 percent overall, is impressive. Vitelli, who’s worked behind the scenes on campaigns, was not nearly as well known as Benoit, and had less than two months to close the gap. A Green Party candidate was not a real factor, with just 4 percent.

In the short term, the special election maintained the status quo, with 19 Senate Democrats and 15 Republicans, with the lone independent, Dick Woodbury, often voting with Democrats but not always. It also served as a referendum on some of the issues swirling about Gov. Paul LePage, and thus provides clues for what will happen around the Republican governor’s re-election bid next year.

LePage had just made his remarks on Obama and white people, and Democrats wasted no time tying Benoit to some of LePage’s more controversial sayings, which go back to before he was elected.

Whether Benoit would prove a loyal supporter for LePage’s agenda is unclear; they didn’t serve together and the State House atmosphere was dramatically different before 2010 than it is today. But she did not effectively distance herself from the LePage.

And it wasn’t just about rhetoric or off-the-cuff statements. It was about substance.

One of the most contentious issues of the previous session was whether Maine would accept federal funding to expand the Medicaid, or MaineCare, program to cover 70,000 people, and to maintain coverage for another 25,000 who will lose it on Jan. 1, thanks to GOP-backed state budget cuts. At a candidate’s forum, Benoit acknowledged she would have voted against the expansion, while Vitelli said she was a strong supporter.

The Legislature ended up enacting LePage’s top priority, which was to pay hospitals for past Medicaid debt. But it failed, by just two votes in the House, to override LePage’s veto of the Medicaid expansion.

It was widely believed that, if the House had overridden the veto, the Senate would have followed suit. A similar bill is expected to return in 2014, and there may be just enough of a shift to get it through – but its chances would be a lot slimmer had Benoit won the special election.

There are signs that Medicaid could be just the issue for legislative Republicans to distinguish themselves from an increasingly unpopular governor as they contemplate their own futures next year. If all the House Republicans who supported the Medicaid expansion on various votes had united on the final one, it would have been law already.

LePage enlisted the Maine Hospital Association into the cause of clearing up Medicaid debt, once and for all, and the issue represented his major, and at times seemingly only, priority for the session. There was the resulting perception that the Hospital Association, which supported the prospective Medicaid expansion, was doing so half-heartedly. Not so, said Steven Michaud, association president, this week. “We weren’t in the middle at all,” he said. “We supported the Medicaid expansion, and still do.”

Democrats, from their candidate for governor, Congressman Mike Michaud, on down, are making health care access a signature issue, even as LePage and his allies keep trying to rebrand it as “welfare.”

If the Democrats come out on top, then the Senate special election will look like the first round in a much larger contest.

Douglas Rooks is a former daily and weekly newspaper editor who has covered the State House for 28 years. He can be reached at [email protected].