It’s hard to call it bad news when the state is projecting a surplus over the next year and a half of more than $150 million.

On Thursday, the Maine Revenue Forecasting Committee issued an updated report on projections for tax collections. A $164 million surplus predicted in December will likely fall short by between $7.3 million and $15 million.

The largest hits come in expectations for revenue from sales taxes and personal income taxes, which are predicted to drop from earlier projections by about $8.2 million and $28 million in the rest of 2006 and 2007, respectively.

The good news from a revenue standpoint is that corporate income taxes are projected to grow by about $18.7 million in the same time period.

“There was good news about a surplus in December,” Commissioner of Administration and Financial Services Rebecca Wyke told the Sun Journal on Thursday. “That has stayed intact. The economy is slowing growing and improving.”

The new numbers are a result of new information available, which includes data from holiday sales and fourth-quarter estimated tax payments, Wyke said.

“The economy continues to grow despite high fuel taxes and slower job growth,” she said. “That’s good news.”

High energy prices have reduced the amount of disposable income many Mainers have to spend, reducing the amount collected in sales tax. And a closer look at the personal income tax projections show that earners at the highest end of the income scale are doing well, a reflection of the growth in corporate profits, higher stock prices and larger dividend payments.

The new estimates will require that the governor and Legislature reconsider his $178 million supplemental budget request, a process that has already begun.

Projections are just that – estimates based on available data. None of them is perfect. But the revisions released last week, while mixed, present a picture worthy of restrained optimism. The surplus might have gotten marginally smaller, but it’s still predicted to be a sizable surplus. That ain’t bad news; it’s good news.