Over the years, Maine’s deer biologist Gerry Lavigne has shown an almost uncanny ability to predict the state’s annual deer kill each November.

His knack for crystal balling our annual deer take has been predicated partly on science and partly on a time tested technique known by most of us: the Educated Guess.

As explained to me, Lavigne’s harvest projections involve a number of time-tested factors: 1.) Winter Mortality Index 2.) condition of deer that ultimately survive the winter 3.) number of licensed hunters 4.) reports of habitat conditions from wardens, trappers and field biologists 5.) number of deer-car accidents 6.) and expected hunter effort.

As Lavigne points out, the biggest variable in his deer harvest equation is totally unpredictable: the weather. Hunters respond to weather conditions. If we have an unusually warm November, hunters get discouraged or stay home on the belief that deer won’t move in mild weather. Weeks of driving rain and high winds will also keep hunters out of the woods. On the other hand, a good tracking snow will bring hunters out in droves.

A little off

The last couple of years Lavigne’s deer-kill projections have been off some. For this he certainly owes nobody an apology. His contribution to Maine’s deer management program during his career in wildlife has been enormous if not downright legendary. The man knows his business.

Although he attributes his harvest misprojections to uncooperative hunting conditions, he also acknowledges that the data he uses to quantify hunter effort is outdated (1996). Of course, the extent of hunter effort is an important part of the educated guess when it comes to predicting the November deer tally.

Hunter effort is an interesting dynamic to ponder. It is my belief that it is becoming an increasingly more significant part of the whole when it comes to our November deer kill. My theory, which is totally unscientific, is nonetheless the result of some facts, some field observations and, as they say, anecdotal evidence.

Numbers game

Here’s what we know. Of Maine’s more than 200,000 licensed hunters, there is a percentage (15 percent) that never hunt at all. These must be folks who just can’t find the time, or maybe like to mill around the deer camp doing dishes, playing cards and keeping the fire going. Believe it or not, there are some license buyers who have no plans to hunt and simply want to support the state’s fish and wildlife management programs. ( Good for them).

One in every four non-resident hunters in our state is from Massachusetts. The demographics of Maine’s hunting community gets even more revealing if you look at Maine towns with the most hunters as a percentage of population and the least hunters as a percentage of population. Guess which Maine community has the least number of hunters head for head?

You guessed it: Portland! Cape Elizabeth comes in second in this category. This also may explain why Portland voters in their naivet strongly supported the bear referendum. No wonder the Maine Department of Inland Fisheries and Wildlife is expending information dollars to educate the Portland populace about the role of hunting in wildlife conservation and game management. Following close behind Portland and Cape Elizabeth are: Auburn, Bar Harbor, Biddeford, Brewer, Bangor, Brunswick, Camden, Cumberland, Freeport, Hallowell, Kennebuckport, Scarborough, Waterville, Westbrook and York.

The Maine town with the most number of hunters as a percentage of population is Waite over on the Eastern Maine border. Jackman and Beddington tie for second place in this category. Sharing the distinction with these “hunter friendly” towns are: Ashland, Aurora, Beddington, Brownville, Cambridge, Caratunk, Eagle Lake, Eustis, Garland, Guilford, Lagrange, Mattawamkeag, Oakfield, Orient, Oxbow, Phillips, Princeton, Reed, Smyrna, Vanceboro, Topsfield, West Forks and Winn.

Maine’s cultural divide, sometimes called the two Maines, glares out at you when you compare statistics like these.

More distractions

Back to hunter effort. In our changing times we know that we are losing a potential generation of new hunters to other more passive recreational activities such as video games and DVD players. A pity, but the way of things. Another factor that may explain a reduction in hunter effort during the November deer season: an aging generation of dedicated and seasoned hunters. If you don’t believe it, visit your local Rod & Gun Club for a bean supper. We greybeards outnumber the younger bean eaters by a noticeable margin.

This fact supports my observation during deer season, which is that the so-called “heater hunters” are on the upswing. (A heater hunter is, of course, a hunter who would rather hunt from a slow moving pickup truck than frost-laden tree stump.) Having been a diehard deer hunter for more than 40 years, it is hard not to contrast what I see in the woods today with what I saw during the Novembers of the 60s and early 70s. In those days I sometimes stayed out of the woods deliberately on opening day of deer season out of concern for excessive hunters numbers. Not a problem today. In fact, during most of November – whether hunting the North Woods or rural farmlands – it was rare to encounter a hunter not of my own party.

One of Maine’s regional wildlife biologists apparently shares my view. He writes in his weekly outdoor report: ” An interesting fact from the wardens, was the percent of road hunters. Most felt that 60 percent of our deer hunters were hunting from their vehicle rather then getting out into the woods.”

If this is the case, if fewer and fewer licensed Maine deer hunters are getting into the woods where the deer are then the hunter effort data that Lavigne has cranked into his deer kill projection will need wholesale revision. Regardless what all of this bodes for the future of our hunting heritage, the heater hunters will have to be taken into account when Lavigne and his field biologists establish the deer-take quotas in the years ahead.

V. Paul Reynolds is editor of the Northwoods Sporting Journal. He is also a Maine Guide, co-host of a weekly radio program “Maine Outdoors” heard Sundays at 7 p.m. on The Voice of Maine News-Talk Network (WVOM-FM 103.9, WCME-FM 96.7) and former information officer for the Maine Dept. of Fish and Wildlife. His e-mail address is [email protected].