I’m making a bold prediction: you can pencil in Derek Lowe’s name for the Cy Young Award.

The 2004 Cy Young Award.

“Look at the last four years,” said Lowe this week. “It seems like after a successful year I start off slow.”

Can’t argue with that. Lowe is coming off his most successful career in baseball. He threw a no-hitter in May, on the way to winning 21 games. He was 12-4 at the All-Star break, and started the mid-summer classic. He finished third in voting for the AL Cy Young Award. All of this after a disastrous season as the Red Sox closer.

That disastrous season followed another All-Star appearance, when Lowe tied for the league lead in saves with 42. You don’t need a graph to chart out the up-and-down major league career that’s developing here.

“I’m definitely putting too much pressure on myself,” said Lowe. “I’m trying to repeat what I did last year and it’s not working.”

” I have to get it out of my system as quickly as I possibly can.”

The Red Sox came into this season with several pitching concerns, but the number two spot in the rotation wasn’t supposed to be one of them. Lowe had emerged as the long sought-after follow up to Pedro Martinez. They combined for 41 wins a year ago – even if they falted a bit this season, you expected to get 35 or more wins between them.

Instead, Lowe’s ERA stands at 5.75 – nearly two and a half runs per game above his career average, and more than three runs higher than last year’s 2.58 mark. He has been solid at home (2-0, 0.95 ERA) and brutal on the road (1-2, 11.12 ERA). Clearly, he can still pitch. But can he pitch well consistently?

“I’m making the game too complicated,” said a frustrated Lowe following his performance Monday at Kansas City. “I’m trying to pitch a good game instead of just letting a good game happen.”

You can see it in the statistics. You can see it in Lowe’s demeanor on the mound. No Red Sox pitcher has given up more home runs this season than Lowe, a sinkerball pitcher who is supposed to make opposing batters smash ball after ball into the dirt.

Lowe will take the mound tonight as the Sox finish up this road trip in Minnesota. A national audience will be watching, wondering if Lowe can stop the peaks and valleys that have emerged in his career.

Can Lowe live up to the expectations of Sox fans? That’s the ultimate question surrounding the 29-year old. “Don’t take this the wrong way, but I need to lower my expectations,” said Lowe.

After watching Pedro Martinez get pushed around for five runs Friday, the Red Sox need Lowe to exceed expectations. The Sox need Lowe to pitch on a high note once again, and tonight would be the perfect time to start.

Lewiston native Tom Caron covers the Red Sox for NESN