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Akili Smith, the failed third pick in the 1999 draft, is working out in San Diego, hoping to get back in the NFL. San Diego, of course, is where Ryan Leaf played (or tried to) and became the poster boy for failed first-round quarterbacks.

Leaf and Smith are two reasons why there haven’t been as many QB flops since. Their demises and the failures of two others taken high in 1999 have demonstrated it’s as important to investigate a prospect’s mental makeup as it is to evaluate his physical skills.

That’s one reason why Ben Roethlisberger is thriving in Pittsburgh and why Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and J. P. Losman, the other three QBs taken in the first round this year, should do well when they get their chances.

Gil Brandt, the NFL’s director of scouting and Dallas’ longtime personnel director, is currently researching the history of NFL drafts, going back to the first in 1936.

“Teams have always reached for quarterbacks,” Brandt says.

“It’s the prime position, so teams have always thought they had to grab the first guy who catches their eye.”

It’s changed since 1999.

Yes, there have been mistakes on quarterbacks in the last five drafts.

Or mistaken evaluations – several personnel people and scouts suggested it would take Roethlisberger far longer than Manning or Rivers to learn his position because he played at Miami of Ohio and had been a QB for only one year in high school.

But there have been no fiascos like Leaf, Smith, Tim Couch and Cade McNown in 1999. Or Jim Druckenmiller, Heath Shuler, Dan McGwire, Todd Marinovich and Rick Mirer before them.

Chad Pennington (2000), Michael Vick (2001) and David Carr and Joey Harrington (2002) are all starters and Pennington, Vick and Carr look like they’ll be standouts.

Byron Leftwich, the seventh overall pick in 2003, has helped make Jacksonville a contender in the AFC South. Kyle Boller (19) and Carson Palmer (1) are starting for Baltimore and Cincinnati, respectively. Rex Grossman (22) started the season for Chicago, but is out with a knee injury.

Other than Roethlisberger, who has led Pittsburgh to a 6-1 record, the only other 2004 first-rounder to get into a game so far is Manning, the first pick.

But his only action for the Giants has been in garbage time twice and he’s done little but hand off. Rivers (4) has moved up from third-stringer to second in San Diego, but sits while Drew Brees sizzles. Losman (22) broke his leg in preseason and is just working back into shape for Buffalo.

What has changed?

In the “old days,” circa 1998, scouts would look at arm strength and perfect spirals and label a quarterback a great prospect. Lloyd Carr, the Michigan coach, watched Leaf throw before his team played Washington State in the Rose Bowl and told an observer he didn’t think the Wolverines could stop him. (Wrong. Michigan won 21-16.)

So scouts brushed off Leaf’s history of immaturity, churlishness and personality problems. That’s hindsight – even the Indianapolis Colts, who had the first pick in that 1998 draft, only decided to take Peyton Manning a few days before the lottery. Some pundits thought after the draft that San Diego had done better with Leaf.

There’s far more personal investigation now.

Two years ago, Baltimore coach Brian Billick personally scouted the top-rated QB prospects, engaging them in lengthy discussions to assess their mental makeup.

Billick liked Boller and traded away his 2004 first choice to take him 19th overall. That’s interesting because another NFL coach was turned off by his interview with Boller and later described Boller’s personality in unflattering terms.

Boller’s long-term success is, of course, still in question. He missed the second half of last season with a knee injury and has been very ordinary this year.

But that may be due in part to the Ravens’ lack of receiving threats, accentuated by an injury to tight end Todd Heap. Boller did have one the best games of his career in a loss in Philadelphia last week with Heap, Jamal Lewis and left tackle Jonathan Ogden out. He was 24-of-38 for 223 yards and a touchdown.

Back to the “old days.”

In 1999, five quarterbacks were chosen with the first 12 picks.

Two are stars: Philadelphia’s Donovan McNabb (2) and Minnesota’s Daunte Culpepper (11). McNabb’s selection was booed by fans who traveled from Philly to New York in hopes the Eagles would select Ricky Williams.

But Couch (taken No. 1 by Cleveland), Smith (No. 3 by Cincinnati), and McNown (No. 12 by Chicago) are out of the league. The Browns and Bengals could have done far better with some of the players taken immediately afterward: Edgerrin James, Williams (well, maybe not), Torry Holt, Champ Bailey or Chris McAlister – Pro Bowlers all.

Pennington was the only quarterback taken in the first round in 2000, although Marc Bulger and Tom Brady, both sixth-rounders, are certified stars, and Tim Rattay (seventh round) may be some day. Bulger was cut by New Orleans when it traded for Aaron Brooks, a fourth-rounder in 1999. As it turns out Brooks was the third best QB from that draft – behind just McNabb and Culpepper

Vick was No. 1 in 2001, after San Diego traded the pick to Atlanta and chose LaDainian Tomlinson. Then the Chargers took Brees with the first pick of the second round.

Carr was the first pick in 2002 and Harrington was No. 3. Washington took Patrick Ramsey with the last pick of the first round. Ramsey started off-and-on his first two seasons and still appears to have a future, even though he was benched when the Redskins acquired Mark Brunell before this season.

So far, the quarterback star of last year’s draft is Leftwich, who has a knack for last-minute finishes that bodes well for his future, although he currently has a knee injury that puts his immediate future in some question. Palmer has had his problems, but is learning on the job. Neither Grossman nor Boller will be a total washout.

So Ryan Leaf and the other failures of the 90s made at least one contribution to the NFL: They ensured there will be fewer future fiascos.



DIRTY DOZEN: The top six and bottom six teams based on current level of play:

1. Philadelphia (7-0). No one close in the NFC.

2. Pittsburgh (6-1). The spoilers are good in their own right.

3. New England (6-1). Pressure off?

4. New York Jets (6-1). Why is Curtis Martin overlooked?

5. New York Giants (5-2). NFC’s second best by default.

6. Kansas City (3-4). Can’t overlook 101 points in two games.

27. Buffalo (2-5). A home win over Arizona? So what?

28. Arizona (2-5). Awful on the road.

29. Chicago (2-5). Don’t get too excited about beating a losing team with a backup QB.

30. San Francisco (1-6). To Jeff and Terrell: make up and come back.

31. Oakland (2-6). League’s worst defense and Collins has been awful.

32. Miami (1-7). Now the defense is collapsing.

AP-ES-11-04-04 1545EST

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