Before training camp opened, Indianapolis Colts president Bill Polian went down a list of the NFL’s 32 teams and pronounced 20 of them capable of reaching the Super Bowl, “depending on injury or other misfortune.”

And he didn’t even include Dallas and Carolina, now legitimate contenders, among those 20.

With five weeks left, pare that list to six: Kansas City, Tennessee, New England and Polian’s Colts in the AFC; St. Louis and Philadelphia in the NFC.

Nothing against the Cowboys and Panthers, both of whom will make the playoffs. But teams normally don’t get to the big game with inexperienced quarterbacks such as Quincy Carter and Jake Delhomme. Kurt Warner and Tom Brady are exceptions that prove the rule.

In other words, Bill Parcells already has pulled off his miracle for this season, as Miami demonstrated Thursday. Dallas’ turnaround is about all that should be expected out of the Cowboys this season.

Here’s how things look by conference as we head into the stretch:

AFC

• Kansas City (10-1). The Chiefs’ momentum has slowed in the last two weeks with a loss in Cincinnati and a close win over Oakland. But winning teams often let down at this point, and the Chiefs remain the consensus favorite in the AFC, in part because a relatively easy remaining schedule is likely to ensure they are at home for the playoffs.

Still, there are pitfalls, even if they get home-field advantage. All that would do is give them a week off, then perhaps a game with Tennessee or Indianapolis, one of whom will be the top-ranked wild-card team.

They’re vulnerable to either. The Chiefs’ defense is good but not great and the wide receivers – other than backup Dante Hall – are not deep threats. The leading receivers are running back Priest Holmes and tight end Tony Gonzalez. Pro Bowlers they may be, but Super Bowl winners need dangerous wideouts.

On the other hand, there’s the Dante Factor. After the Raiders tied last week’s game with 2:22 left, they squibbed the kickoff to keep it away from Hall. He got it anyway at the 16 and took it 29 yards to the 45, field position that set up the winning drive.

• Tennessee (9-2). The Titans have scored 30 points or more in seven of their last eight games. Steve McNair makes them a threat to score on every possession. Eddie George isn’t the old Eddie George, averaging 3.1 yards per carry, but he gets important yards.

Of note: The Titans’ losses are on the road to two other top teams, New England and Indianapolis. They could easily have beaten the Patriots in a seesaw 38-30 game and they get the Colts at home next week.

Their most impressive win is 37-17 at Carolina.

Remember this if they get to the Super Bowl in Houston: The Titans were once the Houston Oilers (McNair, George and coach Jeff Fisher all were Oilers).

• New England (9-2). Bill Belichick has gotten the most with the least. More than 40 players have started games after a spate of injuries on defense and at receiver with starters Troy Brown and David Patten among others.

But Belichick loves role players, so the parts are often interchangeable on a team whose only real stars are Brady and defensive lineman Richard Seymour. A lot of those role players are having good years, from linebacker Tedy Bruschi to running back/return man Kevin Faulk to rookie Dan Klecko, a defensive lineman/linebacker/fullback.

• Indianapolis (9-2). The constants are all producing. Peyton Manning is having an MVP-type year; Edgerrin James isn’t what he once was, but provides a solid running threat; and Marvin Harrison, limited lately by leg problems, remains solid. Reggie Wayne is now established as the No. 2 receiver they’ve lacked, and rookie tight end Dallas Clark has helped.

Dwight Freeney is the only standout on defense, but Tony Dungy’s schemes have made the Colts a lot better than before he arrived. Nickel linebacker Gary Brackett, a free-agent rookie from Rutgers, has become an important part.

NFC

The conference champion will be the underdog in the Super Bowl, probably by more than a touchdown. Super Bowl point spreads are normally larger than during the regular season.

The Eagles and Rams, both with extensive playoff experience, would seem to have a major edge on the Cowboys and Panthers, the only other NFC teams currently playing well enough to be a factor.

Philadelphia (8-3) has to be the favorite.

The Eagles have won six in a row and Donovan McNabb is back up with Manning and McNair among the NFL’s top quarterbacks. The secondary, ravaged early by injuries, is getting healthy and is one of the best in the NFL.

They’re vulnerable on the ground – opposing runners have had four straight 100-yard games. But experience should prevail against teams like Dallas or Carolina.

The Rams probably need a first-round bye and maybe home-field advantage all the way through the NFC playoffs. They’re 5-0 on their fast track in the dome, 3-3 on the road. Marc Bulger, who had six interceptions last season, already has 17 and his rating is under 80 after being over 100 a year ago.

Still, any team playing at home with a young, fast defense, plus Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce, can’t be counted out. Marshall Faulk, slowed by age and injuries, remains dangerous.

Dirty dozen

The top six and bottom six teams based on current level of play (top teams covered above):

1. Tennessee (9-2).

2. New England (9-2).

3. Kansas City (10-1).

4. Indianapolis (9-2).

5. Philadelphia (8-3).

6. St. Louis (8-3).

27. Denver (6-5).The loss at home to the Bears is inexcusable.

28. Detroit (4-8). If only the Lions could play on the road.

29. Oakland (3-8). Is Rick Mirer the next Tommy Maddox?

30. Jacksonville (2-9). Rebuilding year.

31. Arizona (3-8). A .500 team at home. But those road games ….

32. San Diego (2-9). LaDainian was right – the Chargers are the new Bungles.

AP-ES-11-28-03 1300EST