Recent history has shown that preseason predictions rarely come to fruition.

Terrell Owens and Jevon Kearse arrived in Philadelphia this spring as the top receiver and pass rusher who can elevate the hopes of a team that has lost three straight NFC title games.

But as the 2004 NFL season starts, the Eagles are battered, a reminder that injuries are the great equalizer that can neutralize any big-money, big-name offseason moves.

“People are going to get hurt in this business and we understand that. The next guy steps in and he plays. Nobody is going to hang their head or worry about it or anything else,” coach Andy Reid said after defensive end N.D. Kalu and running back Correll Buckhalter were lost for the season and a dozen or so other players were banged up.

Reid can take hope from New England, which lost many key players to injury a year ago and still won its second Super Bowl in three seasons, beating surprising Carolina.

And the Eagles aren’t alone. Important players have been falling daily this summer.

In Washington, where fans are energized by the return of Hall of Fame coach Joe Gibbs, the Redskins lost right tackle Jon Jansen with a torn Achilles’ tendon in their first exhibition game.

Also out for the season: Tennessee linebacker Peter Sirmon, Pittsburgh guard Kendall Simmons, and Miami wide receiver David Boston, an injury that compounded the Dolphins’ horrendous offseason that began when Ricky Williams retired.

A knee injury will keep Arizona wide receiver Anquan Boldin, last season’s record-setting offensive rookie of the year, out until at least mid-October. There have been serious injuries to Dallas safety Darren Woodson; linebackers Brian Urlacher of Chicago, Chad Brown of Seattle, Boss Bailey of Detroit and Napoleon Harris of Oakland; tackle Kyle Turley of St. Louis; running back Marcel Shipp of Arizona; and rookie quarterback J.P. Losman of Buffalo.

This year seems a little different because New England and Philadelphia seem a cut above the other teams in their conferences.

But that defies the illogic of the NFL in the salary-cap era -at least one team always seems to come from nowhere to reach the Super Bowl. Last year, it was Carolina, 1-15 in 2001, 7-9 in 2002, then nearly champions, losing the 32-29 to New England on Adam Vinatieri’s field goal with 4 seconds left, his second title-winning kick in three years.

So book it now: The Eagles or Patriots won’t be there and a team at .500 or below in 2003 could be. Maybe it’ll be Gibbs and the Redskins, 5-11 a year ago, or some rank outsider like Jacksonville with second-year QB Byron Leftwich, or Atlanta with a healthy Michael Vick.

“This game is about What have you done for me lately’ and What are you about this year’ because there are new challenges. There are new teams, new expectations,” says New England quarterback Tom Brady, a player from nowhere – a sixth-round draft choice who became a two-time Super Bowl MVP. “For us to accomplish our goals we are going to have to play better than we did last year.”

They will also have to play differently on defense. Every team will.

The most important offseason move by the league was a crackdown on bumping receivers beyond the 5-yard zone. The Patriots were obvious offenders in their bruising win over Peyton Manning and Indianapolis to take the AFC title.

So flags have been flying in preseason.

“If the NFL wants to see more points scored, how about you just don’t play any defenses out there?” Green Bay safety Darren Sharper said after Packers cornerbacks were penalized seven times in a game with New Orleans. “Just let the offenses go out there and play by themselves, because that’s what they’re trying to do.”

The bump rule will get a quick test in the season opener on Sept. 9: Indy at New England. The first full Sunday is Sept. 12 and the Super Bowl will be played later than ever, on Feb. 6, 2005, in Jacksonville.

There are seven new coaches, four of them returnees: Gibbs (Washington 1981-92), Arizona’s Dennis Green (Minnesota 1992-2001), Oakland’s Norv Turner (Washington 1994-2000) and the New York Giants’ Tom Coughlin (Jacksonville 1995-2002). The others are Lovie Smith in Chicago, Mike Mularkey in Buffalo and Jim Mora (the younger) in Atlanta. Green and Smith bring the number of black head coaches to five, most ever in the NFL.

There also figure to be new stars from one of the best rookie crops in a while.

One new player to watch might as well be a rookie. Cincinnati quarterback Carson Palmer, the 2002 Heisman Trophy winner and the first pick in the 2003 draft, will start after not taking a snap last season behind Jon Kitna, who played well enough to be voted Comeback Player of the Year.

This year’s first pick, Eli Manning, Peyton’s brother and Archie’s son, won’t sit all year.

He was taken by San Diego and traded to the Giants after the Mannings made it clear they wanted nothing to do with the Chargers. He is sure to play, although he may not start the opener – he battled two-time MVP Kurt Warner, another new Giant, for the starting job throughout training camp.

Other potential impact rookies include safety Sean Taylor of Washington; tight end Kellen Winslow Jr. of Cleveland; wide receivers Larry Fitzgerald of Arizona, Roy Williams of Detroit, Reggie Williams of Jacksonville and Lee Evans of Buffalo; running backs Kevin Jones of Detroit and Tatum Bell of Denver; linebackers D.J. Williams of Denver and Jason Babin of Houston; and cornerbacks DeAngelo Hall of Atlanta, Dunta Robinson of Houston and Chris Gamble of Carolina.

New England remains the favorite in the AFC because of coach Bill Belichick’s ability to blend role players into a cohesive unit and the addition of Corey Dillon to a team that has lacked a first-rate running back since Curtis Martin departed after the 1997 season.

Indianapolis and Kansas City are strong offensively, questionable on defense, especially the Chiefs. Tennessee will compete as long as quarterback Steve McNair stays healthy. Denver has made huge steps toward improving a defense that fell apart in a 41-10 playoff loss to the Colts, most notably by acquiring cornerback Champ Bailey in a rare deal of Pro Bowlers that sent running back Clinton Portis to Washington.

Defensive power Baltimore also has Super Bowl hopes that depend greatly on the progress of second-year quarterback Kyle Boller and the effectiveness of Jamal Lewis, who ran for 2,066 yards last year, second most in NFL history, but is scheduled to go on trial in Atlanta on Nov. 1 on drug-related charges.

The New York Jets, Cincinnati and Jacksonville could be sleepers, the Jets because quarterback Chad Pennington is healthy, the Jaguars because Leftwich could be a star. Palmer is the biggest question for the Bengals, who took huge steps last year in Marvin Lewis’ first season as coach.

In the NFC, the additions of Owens and Kearse make the Eagles the pick on paper, although they lost cornerbacks Troy Vincent and Bobby Taylor. Defending champion Carolina still has the league’s best front seven despite losses on the offensive line and in the secondary.

Seattle looks like a major contender with Matt Hasselbeck finally emerging as a top quarterback, although defense is a concern. St. Louis should continue to challenge.

Green Bay and Minnesota both figure to contend, although the Vikings seem to collapse late every season and the Packers have problems in the secondary. With Vick healthy, Atlanta could challenge Carolina in the South.

The East is intriguing because of its coaches. Gibbs, Reid, Coughlin and Dallas’ Bill Parcells are a combined 427-274-1, with five Super Bowl wins, seven Super Bowl appearances and 13 championship game appearances. The Giants are at least a year away from being a factor and the Cowboys may regress from their 10-6 record of a year ago. Parcells is going old with 40-year-old Vinny Testaverde at QB, Eddie George at running back and Keyshawn Johnson, picked up from Tampa, at wide receiver.

Testaverde, George and Johnson are three of the veterans who have moved. Among the others: Warren Sapp and John Lynch from Tampa to Oakland (Sapp) and Denver (Lynch). The Raiders also signed Kerry Collins, released by the Giants after they drafted Manning, and mammoth defensive tackle Ted Washington from New England.

Tampa Bay, with coach Jon Gruden and general manager Bruce Allen having Raiders backgrounds, became Oakland East. The Bucs signed running back Charlie Garner from the Raiders, then Tim Brown after he was released.

QB Jeff Garcia left San Francisco for Cleveland. Vincent went from the Eagles to Buffalo, Taylor to Seattle. Another Philadelphia defensive leader, Carlos Emmons, signed with the Giants in what could be construed as a “trade” for Dhani Jones, a New York linebacker who went to Philly.

Emmons and Jones are limping. That figures. It’s why some team may well come from nowhere.

AP-ES-08-26-04 1937EDT