AUBURN – It’s as bad as you hear.

Charles Colgan, a former state economist, told the Androscoggin County Chamber of Commerce on Thursday during his annual trip through town that it will take Maine until 2012 to get back the number of jobs it had in 2007.

Colgan, who has tailored his annual economic forecast to Lewiston-Auburn in past years, said afterward that was difficult to do this time.

Jobs and real estate values here will continue to decline like the rest of the state.

“Lewiston-Auburn is not going to be immune from any of the forecast,” said Colgan, a professor at the University of Southern Maine’s Muskie School.

“This will be a little like the ’90s (recession, which) mostly hit Cumberland and York (counties). Having been spared the worst of it doesn’t mean it’s going to be good.”

While state figures won’t be in for weeks, he told the crowded room at the Hilton Garden Inn that if Maine takes its share of national job losses, that will mean 3,500 jobs were lost over the past three months.

Expect the biggest declines to come in retail, followed by construction. He forecast small job gains in health and professional services going into the future.

So far, Maine’s rate of home foreclosure and distribution of subprime loans has been on par with the national average, Colgan said.

The sharp decline nationally in auto sales – from 16 million units in 2007 to about 11 million in 2008 – has “severe implications” here, he said: More than 40 percent of the sales tax in Maine comes from building supplies and auto sales, money vital to the state budget.

He forecast that local budgets could also see a pinch from a threatened property tax base.

“I suspect local governments are going to find over the next two years, far from being terrified of revaluations, residents will start demanding them, en masse,” Colgan said.

His forecast had job losses in Maine bottoming out in the third quarter of 2010. For recovery to start happening by then, there will have to be a global economic recovery, an effective federal stimulus package – and quick – and consumers will have to stop panicking and get back in the stores, he said.

As he flashed through rounds of slides, Colgan pointed to a national chart on consumer confidence. It hasn’t been so low since 1981.

“If you think consumers are depressed, I’m sorry, you guys are clinical,” he said to the business leaders. When the room chuckled appreciatively, he softened the assessment:

“I’ve been with this crowd for years – you guys are more optimistic.”