Two weeks ago, Mike Huckabee was in a buoyant mood as he took reporters on a pheasant hunt on a snow-covered Iowa farm. The three birds his party shot, he said, show “what happens if you get in my way.”

A lot more than pheasants have gotten in the way of the former Arkansas governor’s meteoric rise to the top of the Republican presidential field over the last few days. His reaction to turmoil in Pakistan exposed a shaky grasp of foreign policy, and a bizarre incident in which he yanked a negative ad but then showed it to reporters displayed his campaign’s helter-skelter nature.

Pre-caucus polling in Iowa, always tricky, suggested Mr. Huckabee would finish first or a strong second. An expected large turnout of religious conservatives, who make up a bigger share of the electorate than in any other state, almost ensured that, despite his acknowledged organizational shortcomings.

A victory, he predicted, would “stun the political chattering class” and transform the race.

But the shaky underpinning of his candidacy have raised serious questions about whether his campaign can convert his win in Iowa into a GOP presidential nomination, or whether he is destined to founder as other long-shot conservatives such as Pat Robertson and Pat Buchanan did after early splashes.

Asked if the win in Iowa could enable Mr. Huckabee to raise the money and build the structure to compete with better-funded rivals over the next few months, campaign chair Ed Rollins said, “We’ll find out.”

In many ways, the contests in Iowa and in New Hampshire tomorrow are made for candidates such as Mike Huckabee, who can compete with better known, more heavily financed rivals through energy, personal charm and a willingness to spend weeks meeting voters almost one-to-one.

But a once-quiet process among party activists has changed, thanks to increased media exposure, a plethora of televised debates and the unique circumstances of a race without an incumbent, increasing pressure on candidates more used to lower-key races in their home states.

That pressure focuses attention on every misspoken comment and every reaction to events in the outside world.

Mr. Huckabee’s earlier statement that seemed unaware of a revised National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear program passed without much damage. But even some supporters at a Elks Lodge in Iowa conceded that his slim foreign policy knowledge could pose a problem after a series of statements reacting to the Dec. 27 assassination of Pakistan opposition leader Benazir Bhutto.

In one, he showed he misunderstood the region’s geography. In another, he linked the killing to the U.S. immigration problem by overstating how many Pakistanis illegally cross U.S. borders.

“If George W. had gone in and was great on foreign policy, it wouldn’t even be an issue now,” said E.J. Bell, 28, an evangelical Huckabee backer who noted the current president’s similarly slim foreign policy résumé.

If not in the primaries, “it could be an issue in the general election, depending on who the Democratic candidate is,” said Mr. Bell, who works for a credit union.

Foreign policy was a definite barrier for another potential Huckabee supporter, Otto Getz, 30, of Marion, the band director of the Home School Association. Though a religious conservative like most in the room, he said he also was considering former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, the most liberal GOP candidate on social issues.

“He seems to be very strong on foreign policy,” Mr. Getz said. “I think it’s a really defining issue.” He said he hoped Mr. Huckabee might discuss the issue; when he didn’t, it left Mr. Getz on the fence.

Dan McDowell, 61, a Cedar Rapids factory worker, said he wasn’t concerned. “Unless you’re an incumbent president, you’ve never faced any of this stuff,” he said.

Mr. Rollins said he expects to hire a national security adviser within days to keep Mr. Huckabee briefed and doesn’t expect future problems. “He got caught off guard, but he’s a smart guy and a quick study,” the veteran campaign aide said.

Indeed, Mr. Huckabee may face greater post-Iowa difficulties from the shape of the GOP electorate than from foreign policy or baggage in his Arkansas record.

In Iowa, religious conservatives may make up nearly half the participants; that proportion falls to less than 20 percent in New Hampshire. Past exit polls show that the number reached 30 percent in only three other states – South Carolina, Florida and Texas.

Still, the GOP race is so wide open that those states could keep Mr. Huckabee’s stock soaring – assuming he gets his campaign act together.

Carl P. Leubsdorf is Washington bureau chief of The Dallas Morning News.