You don’t have to edit the Farmers’ Almanac to see that a “perfect storm” is looming. Within Maine, regional poverty, high taxes and inadequate educational opportunities for students will result in a catastrophe, the size of which we’ve never seen, if we don’t act now.

School consolidation has been front page news for the last six weeks. To ease anxiety over Gov. John Baldacci’s top-down 26-region plan, the Legislature’s Education Committee responded with two counterproposals. The majority report built 26 alliances over three years with the hope of savings, and a minority report offered a more realistic approach. There are a number of sub-committees working on alternatives.

The real issues are students, quality education, and time. In 1997, the Legislature enacted Maine Learning Results – an effort to assure all students graduate with the knowledge and skills necessary to enter the workforce and/or college and to be productive citizens. Despite laws and promises, the full implementation of the system of learning results has yet to be achieved. Meanwhile, we continue to graduate many students who are ill-prepared academically.

Until we hold schools and students responsible, businesses and colleges will offer remediation.

While Maine is relatively homogeneous, there is tremendous poverty, which affects the education students receive. All the research and polls indicate Maine taxpayers want quality schools. In fact, most think our school is doing a great job, while other districts are troubled. However, taxpayers are overburdened, and two citizen initiatives for tax reform have narrowly failed. Will another taxpayer referendum fail?

Are we willing to take that chance?

Gov. Baldacci proposed a bold, yet overly aggressive, consolidation plan. It was specific, had a timetable, but was very top down. It didn’t sit well with those lamenting the loss of local control, even though the status quo of our school organization is unsustainable. The system needs to be restructured.

We are in the “state we are in” because we have not had the political will to effect real change since the 1957 Sinclair Act. Our superintendents have, in some arenas, been demonized as the culprits and that is unfortunate. We all share the responsibility, and we all have to work together to find a solution.

If we created a new education system, it wouldn’t look like it does today. Fewer, better structured and resourced districts would offer improved coordination, communication and a more defined common purpose that leads to better learning opportunities for all students. With a declining student population and increasing taxes, it is imperative we create a more efficient and effective system.

Research indicates districts of 2,500 to 3,500 offer students the best education, and taxpayers the most efficient use of resources. Combined with collaborations among larger districts, we can expect quality programs for all Maine learners and savings that ease the burden on homeowners – if we move in this direction.

There are proposals by Sen. Peggy Rotundo, Sen. Karl Turner and Sen. Peter Mills that, for some reason, were discounted by the Education Committee. They are worthy of reconsideration, and I hope the best thinking of each can be combined to produce a comprehensive and workable plan for district consolidation.

As with any storm, there are ways to be prepared. The Maine Coalition for Excellence in Education, a statewide business education partnership that I chair, has developed guidelines that should be used to guide the formulation of a restructured Maine education system. Any eventual solution, however, will offer a balance that makes educational and economic sense:

Our guidlines are:

• Ensures the best educational opportunities and results for all Maine students – and requires the efficient use of Maine’s limited resources.

• Ensures accountability for student achievement and savings with specific targets, incentives and consequences for not meeting the targets.

• Promotes equity and ensures all children have the opportunity to realize the promise of Maine’s Learning Results.

• Mandates district consolidation with a rational strategy to guide the process.

• Provides the necessary reasonable resources to support the consolidation process across the state.

• Ensures appropriate balance between state and local authority to continually improve results for all Maine students.

• Assures best practices employed at all levels, in all components, of the new school district organizations that lead to better educational outcomes for students.

Creating the new system for education that engages parents, students and educators should be the ultimate goal for any district consolidation plan. The above criteria can provide a guiding light to help us get through this storm.

Peter E. Geiger, of Lewiston, is chairman of the Maine Coalition for Excellence in Education.