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When former Gov. Angus King took office in 1995, he inherited a state government awash in unpaid bills and budget deficits. One of his new commissioners even found an old Nynex phone bill for about $35,000 stuffed deep into a desk drawer, out of sight and mind.

By the end of his first term, King had rebuilt the state’s fiscal house and sailed into a second term with the highest approval rating of any governor in modern times.

Today, Gov. John Baldacci begins his re-election effort with approval ratings that have been, in recent months, on par with the president’s.

Now that takes some work.

Baldacci will argue that he inherited a financial mess from King and assert that his first achievement was to fill a $1.2 billion budget hole without raising “broad-based” taxes, followed closely by creating the nation’s first universal health care system, followed closely by saving Mainers from the clutches of local government by providing significant property tax relief.

But if all of that is true, why do only 38 percent of Mainers think he deserves a second term?

The answers might be found in the very numbers Baldacci plans to run on:

• The budget deficit was real, but it was not really $1.2 billion. Every two years, every governor faces a “structural gap,” which simply represents the difference between what it would cost to fully fund all of the laws and programs on the books (which never happens) and how much money is available to pay for them (which is never enough).

Baldacci ultimately balanced his first budget in large part by privatizing the state’s wholesale liquor business, giving up $300 million in ongoing revenue over 10 years to get $125 million upfront; and by raising fees and non-broad-based taxes by an estimated $200 million in his first budget alone.

In Baldacci’s second two-year budget effort, the public moved quickly to first stop him from selling off the state lottery at a huge loss and, soon after, from borrowing $450 million to balance the books.

• His Dirigo Health program cost Mainers $53 million in one-time startup money and will cost them about $45 million a year in ongoing costs, based on today’s numbers. To replace the one-time startup money, the ongoing costs will be paid for through a new tax on the people who are already insured.

The governor said 30,000 of the state’s 140,000 uninsured citizens would get coverage in the first year. The figure is actually about 1,600 after 12 months, if you don’t count the 5,700 people who dropped their high-deductible and high-premium policies for the publicly-funded coverage.

Baldacci sold his idea to an enthusiastic Legislature and public three years ago as a program to cover the uninsured, not to increase the ranks of the uninsured. He seems to remain stumped over why people aren’t as enthusiastic today.

• Finally, property tax relief. Baldacci has routinely criticized the most accountable form of government – local school boards and selectmen – for overspending and overtaxing, while taking full credit for $250 million in property tax relief, which local government pushed to a statewide vote two years ago and which Baldacci bitterly opposed.

Even after the measure passed, which required the state to fulfill its promise to fund 55 percent of the cost of K-12 education (the single largest drain on local property tax dollars), Baldacci fought to delay funding the law and, in doing so, sent a message to angry voters that state government would do what it wanted in the end.

Now the governor’s low approval ratings start to make some sense. On the three issues he touts as his biggest accomplishments, Maine people apparently have done their own math and concluded the numbers don’t add up.

Perhaps the most disconcerting number for the governor today is nine. That’s how many months he has to turn around his approval rating and win re-election.

Now that will take some work.

Liz Chapman has covered local and state government in Maine for 20 years. She is presently the Sun Journal regional editor.

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