What if they held a ball and Cinderella wasn’t invited?

With the MPA’s new 50-percent rule, there are a few less Cinderellas in this year’s boys’ basketball tournament. There will be no 10th seed making an unlikely appearance in the regional championship in classes A, B or D, as Lawrence did in Eastern A last year. Western Class C can claim a 10th seed in Traip Academy, but the Rangers will have to overcome history and an MVC-dominated field starting with defending regional champion Dirigo to dance with the gold ball. 

That doesn’t mean there aren’t some potential Cinderella stories yet to unfold in Augusta and Portland this year, and it certainly doesn’t mean the higher seeds have nothing to worry about. The next week will hold plenty of nervous moments for everyone. That’s what makes it so much fun.

Eastern A

Brewer earned the top seed because it was the best team in the KVAC North, a haven for Heal Points. But the Witches have lost three times to the second-seeded Red Eddies and dropped their regular-season finale to No. 3 Bangor.  The Rams, riding a 15-game winning streak, are the hottest team entering the tournament and have the size to match up with anyone. Hampden Academy is the best No. 4 seed in the state and has the balance to go deep.  After winning their first regional title in 52 years in 2009, Edward Little fans might seem greedy for wanting a repeat. But the Red Eddies haven’t lost since James Philbrook returned to the lineup full-time, and the emergence of Yusuf Iman and Bo Leary in his absence gives them an unmatched triumverate. EL’s frontcourt dominance will be tested in the early rounds by Mt. Blue and, likely, Bangor, but the combination of balance and experience make the Eddies a tough team to pick against.

Prediction: Edward Little

Western B

Two-time defending champion Cape Elizabeth made its annual “Yoo-hoo, remember us?” statement with last week’s win over Falmouth to claim the top seed in the region. That loss just added to the Yachtsmen’s mission of avenging last year’s regional final loss to the Capers. Mountain Valley always enjoys being an unknown quantity against the WMC-dominated field, but the Falcons could get a taste of their own medicine in the first round against Lincoln Academy of the KVAC. Maranacook, another KVAC school, is back in Western Maine after spending the last five years in Eastern B, a tenure that included two state titles. But the Capers are once again the team that is peaking at the right time.

Prediction: Cape Elizabeth

Western C

The long shadow of Thomas Knight does not reach Augusta all the way from South Bend, IN, so the region would appear to be wide open. It really isn’t. Top-seeded Livermore Falls handed Dirigo its only Class C loss in an emotional 59-48 contest three weeks ago. The Cougars are the second seed, which means they face the prospect of having to beat two WMC teams in the first two rounds, Traip and Old Orchard Beach, and while those teams should be pesky, Dirigo faced much tougher tests in the MVC North. Half of the bracket consists of teams from the MVC South — Hall-Dale, Wiscasset, Boothbay and Georges Valley — the most unpredictable division in all of Maine basketball this year. Despite those unknowns, Livermore Falls and Dirigo have proven to be the best teams in Western C this year, and a 1 vs. 2 showdown seems likely. The Cougars get the edge because of their tournament experience.

Prediction: Dirigo

Western D

What is usually the biggest hodgepodge of schools among the four classes is typically the most predictable. There have been a grand total of three different regional champions in the last dozen years, and the most recent, Richmond, is favored to win its third straight and fourth in the last five years. The top-seeded Bobcats have eight players back from last year’s team and have an unmatched combination of size and backcourt depth. The biggest enigma in a tournament field full of them is second-seeded A.R. Gould, a new addition to Western D that literally hasn’t set foot outside its South Portland gym at the Long Creek Development Center youth correctional facility. No. 3 Valley handed Richmond its only loss of the season. Hyde beat the Cavaliers twice, while Forest Hills, Vinalhaven, Greenville and Buckfield all beat each other this season. When in doubt, go with the team with the proven track record.

Prediction: Richmond