If Question 1, the repeal of tax reform, passes Tuesday, it will represent a victory for  demagoguery over dispassionate truth.

And you will likely be cheated out of paying lower taxes for years to come.

The people urging a “Yes on One” vote Tuesday have, in their TV ads, desperately tried to beat a complex issue into a cynical, emotional sound bite — ordinary people getting “short-changed” by the wealthy.

“If Question 1 doesn’t pass on June 8, it means another government bailout for the wealthy and Maine people get shortchanged … again,” according to a TV ad sponsored by the Maine Association of Realtors.

This is, by nearly every credible analysis of tax reform, a complete falsehood.

According to Maine Revenue Services, 88 percent of Mainers would see a reduction in their overall tax burden under tax reform.

A Maine Center for Economic Policy analysis found that Mainers who earn the least stand to gain the most.

For instance, 98.2 percent of those earning less than $12,244 per year would pay lower taxes.

Meanwhile, only 66.9 percent of those earning more than $107,000 would see their taxes decrease.

The people most likely not to see a tax break are those who have high incomes and are making large mortgage payments on very expensive homes. In other words, they are not low- to moderate-income Mainers.

So, how is it possible that nearly 90 percent of Mainers would pay lower taxes under tax reform?

Because out-of-staters would pay more in the form of higher lodging and meal taxes.

“Exporting the sales and income taxes to nonresidents will help put upward of $40 million back into the wallets and pocketbooks of Mainers,” according to the MCEP.

Even with these increases, however, Maine’s sales tax on most goods would remain at 5 percent, which is lower than every other New England state except New Hampshire, which has no sales tax.

Maine’s meal and lodging tax, meanwhile, would be slightly lower than in New Hampshire and Vermont, and slightly higher than in Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Yes, Mainers eat out, and they would also pay sales tax on a variety of other goods and services, such as dry cleaning and the labor portion of auto repairs.

Even so, Maine Revenue Services predicts that these increases would be more than offset by reducing the income tax rate from 8.5 percent to 6.5 percent.

In the end, you should ask one question: Will I come out ahead?

You can determine that by visiting this website: tinyurl.com/mainetax.

Or, you can accept the word of Maine Revenue Services. Or the Maine Center for Economic Policy.

Or, you can believe the Portland, Bangor, Lewiston and Maine state chambers of commerce, which all urge a “no” vote.

The truth is out there — it’s just not in the misleading TV ads.

Vote “no” on the repeal of tax reform, Question 1, on Tuesday.

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