WASHINGTON (AP) – Heating U.S. homes with oil this winter will cost a painful $450 more than a year ago, another slap to families already reeling from high gasoline and food costs and fearful of losing their heat because of unpaid bills.

Even as oil prices are plummeting and plenty of natural gas is going into storage, people should brace for higher heating bills “across the board” no matter what fuel is used or region of the country, said Howard Gruenspecht, acting chief of the federal Energy Information Administration.

But fuel oil users – about a third of households in the Northeast – will experience the biggest hit with an expected heating bill of $2,388 on average for the October-March heating season, or 23 percent higher than what it cost last winter.

The price of natural gas, the most widely used heating fuel used in half of the nation’s households, will increase an average of 18 percent, or $1,010 over the heating season -about $155 more than last winter. People who heat with propane or electricity will see a 10 percent to 11 percent increase in costs, the agency said.

Natural gas supplies will be plentiful this winter, with storage in November expected to be well above the five-year average, and prices have dropped below what they were a year ago. But many utilities purchased gas for storage this past summer when prices were at their peak and will pass those costs onto customers this winter.

Gruenspecht acknowledged the winter fuel cost estimates are based on assumptions made before the latest Wall Street credit crunch and the possibility of a more severe global economic decline. That could push down oil prices and, in turn, ease prices somewhat for fuel oil and propane.

“The economic picture is perhaps the biggest uncertainty today,” Gruenspecht acknowledged.

But he said he doubts the EIA’s winter-long price projections are likely to change dramatically. “People are already buying fuel oil … it’s not like people are going to delay their first purchase until February to take advantage of what might be lower prices.”

“We expect it to be more expensive this winter across the board,” he said.

Gruenspecht emphasized that the cost figures should be viewed as “a broad guide” comparing this year’s expected heating costs to last winter and said actual expenses can vary depending on region, local weather and the energy efficiency of individual homes.

But this year’s forecast marks the second winter in a row of sharply higher heating prices compared with the previous year. And it follows a summer of record $4-a-gallon gasoline, a booming credit crisis, a struggling economy and growing unemployment.

Some people have not yet paid last winter’s heating bills, much less this past summer’s electricity tab from having to cool their homes. A recent Associated Press survey found that utility shutoffs because of unpaid bills have been running 17 percent to 22 percent higher than last year in some parts of the country.

“We’ve seen rising shutoffs around the country. More and more people are struggling to pay their energy bills,” says Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association whose members administer government programs to help people pay heating and cooling costs.

Wolfe said that while Congress recently doubled the program to help poor people pay energy costs to $5.1 billion, that may not be enough. “It’s not only the poor, but the middle class family that will be struggling. That’s really a new situation,” Wolfe said in an interview.

Jamie Py of the Maine Oil Dealers Association in Brunswick, Maine, said the credit crunch is likely to add to the problem. “It’s difficult for some dealers to offer as much credit as they used to. The credit markets have tightened up,” said Py.

In many states utilities are prohibited from shutting off gas or electricity service during winter months. Fuel oil dealers have no such requirements although Py said that in Maine – and possibly other states – they are obligated to make emergency deliveries if a customer pays cash for the new delivery, no matter what is owed.

He said a survey in Maine showed the average fuel oil price has dropped about $1 a gallon since July to an average of $3.60 a gallon with hopes that it will fall more if the price of crude oil drops.

While the cost of crude oil has declined from a high of $147 a barrel in July to just under $88 a barrel for delivery in November, the EIA said this winter, “Oil markets are expected to remain relatively tight because of sluggish production growth.” Crude prices likely will still be higher this winter than last, the EIA said, although cautioning that could change depending on the weakness or the global economy.

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On the Net:

Energy Information Administration: http://www.eia.doe.gov

AP-ES-10-07-08 1627EDT