LEWISTON — Eleven days before Maine voters pick a new governor, a poll gave Republican Paul LePage a 12-point lead.

If the election happened today, pollster Critical Insights gives LePage 32 percent of the vote. Democrat Libby Mitchell would follow with 20 percent and independent Eliot Cutler would get 19 percent, according to the poll released Thursday.

“It’s just one poll,” LePage spokesman Dan Demerrit said Thursday evening, “but we’re very pleased.”

Critical Insights polled about 600 Maine voters from Oct. 13 to 17.

“This is really anybody’s race,” said MaryEllen FitzGerald, the founder and president of the Portland-based pollster. She was the featured speaker Thursday at Lewiston’s Great Falls Forum.

“This is one of the most volatile elections I have ever seen,” FitzGerald said. “Every day is different. Every day is new.”

The LePage campaign attributes the new numbers to its message of stressing lower taxes and less government spending.

The Mitchell camp greeted the new poll with skepticism.

Most polls have shown the candidates in a closer race, often within the margin of error, Mitchell spokesman David Loughran said.

Crowds for the Democrat are growing, Loughran said. And when today’s undecided voters get in the booth, many will support Mitchell, he said.

The Cutler campaign said it, too, has captured momentum with the newest numbers.

“We feel great about how things are going,” campaign manager Ted O’Meara said. His own poll numbers also show Mitchell leading Cutler by a single point, he said.

According to the Critical Insights numbers, about one in five likely voters still doesn’t know how he or she will vote. The undecideds’ 21 percent was higher than either Mitchell’s or Cutler’s percentage.

“That’s the wild card,” FitzGerald said Thursday. “These are the people who intend to vote and haven’t made up their minds.”

She said concerns over the economy and job losses worry Maine voters more than anything else.

The new poll found that 38 percent of voters believe the economy is getting worse. Slightly more people believe the recession will drag on for at least two more years.

And only 3 percent of the people surveyed feel that the recession is over, she said.

“It’s almost a perfect storm of negativity,” FitzGerald said.

“Only a quarter of our respondents believe the country is headed in the right direction,” she said. That number was 12 percent higher only six months ago, she said.

The discontent among typically moderate Mainers is sending ripples through the election.

In the Second Congressional District, Democratic incumbent Michael Michaud is leading Republican Jason Levesque by a margin of 19 percent, with 49 percent of the vote, FitzGerald said.

In the First Congressional District, Democratic incumbent Chellie Pingree’s lead has slipped to 5 points, with 45 percent of the vote to Republican Dean Scontras’ 40 percent, the Critical Insights poll found.

FitzGerald’s company describes itself as nonpartisan and independent.

The recent poll also showed that voters are leaning toward passage of a bond that would pay for dental schooling.

However, FitzGerald declined to release numbers on the Oxford casino question, saying those data were commissioned privately.

“I can’t say what we found,” she said. “But I will say it’s really close.”

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